Red Sea shipping risk

Africa Supply Chain

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd resume Red Sea route amid capacity relief

A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on July 6, 2026, they are resuming Red Sea and Suez Canal transit for select Asia–Europe services — the first major carrier alliance to do so since late 2023. The move follows security reassessments and aims to alleviate vessel capacity constraints that drove spot rates up 37% in recent weeks. Maersk shares fell 9%, Hapag-Lloyd dropped 4.6%, reflecting market expectations of rate normalization. The Majestic Maersk, currently near Oman, will be the first redirected vessel. The Cape of Good Hope detour added ~14–18 days and $250,000–$350,000 in fuel costs per round trip.

AI & Automation

CMA CGM Q2 profit surges 42.4% amid Red Sea volatility

CMA CGM reported a 42.4% surge in Q2 2026 EBITDA to $2.26 billion, with maritime volumes rising 6% to 6.3 million container units. Revenue climbed 22% to $9.96 billion. The company credited sustained freight rates and strategic resilience amid Middle East conflicts—including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea volatility—enabling continued Suez Canal-Red Sea services. It launched the 24,212-TEU LNG-powered vessel CMA CGM Notre Dame and introduced the Mekong Transpacific Express service between Vietnam and the U.S. West Coast. Net income rose to $770 million from $520 million year-on-year.

Manufacturing

CMA CGM, Evergreen deliver ULCVs as east-west capacity rises

CMA CGM and Evergreen Marine delivered two ultra-large container vessels — the 24,212 TEU CMA CGM Pantheon and 16,556 TEU Ever Even — in late July 2026, part of a broader wave of seven newbuild deliveries across carriers including Hapag-Lloyd, Zim, ONE, and Wan Hai. These vessels collectively added over 120,000 TEU of capacity to east-west trades, with deployments spanning Asia-Europe, transatlantic, transpacific, and Red Sea routes. The influx arrives amid falling spot rates and tightening capacity discipline, as carriers adjust fleet allocations in response to El Niño–driven Panama Canal constraints and persistent Red Sea disruptions.

Latin America Supply Chain

Bab el-Mandeb Blockade Threatens 20% Fertilizer Cost Rise for Brazil

A potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens to raise Brazilian fertilizer import costs by up to 20%, disrupt Black Sea grain exports to Asia, and inflate diesel and freight expenses. Saudi Arabia — a key supplier of phosphate fertilizers and sulfur to Brazil — faces severe export constraints if both Red Sea and Hormuz routes are compromised. Analysts warn DAP prices could surge ahead of India’s major procurement auction, while wheat and corn shipping premiums may rise 15–25%. Brazil’s heavy reliance on imported fertilizers (85%+) and road transport magnifies domestic exposure.

Disruptions

Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb blockade, risking $100/barrel oil

Houthi militants have threatened a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — risking disruption to 7.4 million barrels per day of oil, or 7% of global output. With the Strait of Hormuz already severely impaired by the US-Iran conflict, Asian oil buyers face dwindling alternatives and a heightened risk of prices exceeding US$100 per barrel. The Houthis cite 12 years of Saudi restrictions on Yemeni imports as justification. Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon confirms the group’s demonstrated capability to disrupt Red Sea shipping. Mitigation efforts by the Saudi-led coalition and Asian refiners are underway, but insurance premiums have surged 300% since May 2026.

Disruptions

Ukraine blames Russia for grain ship strike killing 6 sailors

Ukraine’s navy confirmed six sailors killed and four missing after Russian cruise missiles struck the Turkish-owned grain vessel Golden Leo near Odesa on 20 July 2026. The ship, flagged in Guinea-Bissau, was departing the combat zone with a grain cargo. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga confirmed a Ukrainian maritime pilot was among the dead. Eight crew were rescued, two injured. The attack follows a fresh Russian missile barrage on Kyiv and threatens already strained Black Sea grain logistics, where insurance costs have surged over 300% since early 2024.

Strategy & Planning

Supply Chain Leaders Raise Buffer Stocks to Highest Since Jan 2023

Supply chain leaders are raising buffer stocks to their highest level since January 2023 amid ongoing disruption risks. Manufacturer backlogs hit their highest since late 2022, with bottlenecks expected through at least Q3 2026. U.S. input purchasing accelerated to its fastest pace since April 2022, while Japan, China, and Vietnam led Asian purchasing growth. Transportation costs remain elevated — their highest since June 2022 outside of April–May — reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty. According to GEP’s John Piatek, companies are stockpiling not due to current cost pressures, but because they lack confidence in global trade stability.

Geopolitics

Geopolitics Trumps Supply-Demand in Box Shipping, KOBC Says

The Korea Ocean Business Corp (KOBC) reports that geopolitics now outweighs supply-and-demand fundamentals in container shipping. Since November 2023, Red Sea disruptions have forced Asia-Europe carriers to detour via the Cape of Good Hope, absorbing newbuild capacity and preventing feared oversupply. Freight rate modeling has shifted to incorporate geopolitical risk, distance, and network design. Liner strategies now prioritize flexibility — exemplified by MSC's 'optionality' approach and HMM's hub-and-spoke reinforcement. KOBC's $X-scale investments in US logistics hubs (August 2025), Arctic infrastructure, and HMM equity reflect this structural realignment.

Disruptions

Southern African citrus exports drop 24% amid Red Sea disruption

Southern African trade growth is being stifled by supply chain bottlenecks stemming from Persian Gulf conflict, with South Africa’s citrus exports down 24% year-on-year — from 15.2 million to 11.5 million cartons. While total citrus exports rose 2.1% to 62.1 million cartons, regional shifts accelerated: Europe took 24.3 million (+18.6%), the UK 6.2 million (+12.7%), and Asia 2.9 million (+28.2%). Port congestion worsened, with Cape Town and Durban vessel waits exceeding 48 hours. May 2026 container throughput hit 17.3 million TEU — up 6.2% month-on-month — revealing demand resilience amid infrastructure strain.

Strategy & Planning

Maersk raises full-year EBITDA forecast to $12.5 billion

A.P. Moller–Maersk has raised its full-year 2024 EBITDA forecast to $12.5 billion — up from $9.5 billion — citing strong freight rates, volume stability, and robust growth in its integrated logistics business, which now contributes $1.2 billion annually. The company plans $1.8 billion in 2024 tech and infrastructure investment, including $720 million for its digital platform serving 125,000+ customers. Global container rates remain 62% above 2023 levels, supporting Maersk’s outperformance versus peers like MSC and Hapag-Lloyd.

Procurement

Freight Rates Set for Spike Amid Liner Network Pressures — The Loadstar

Freight rates are poised for a material spike in the coming weeks amid mounting global supply chain pressures, according to Jacob van Rensburg of the South African Association of Freight Forwarders (SAAF). His analysis links rising Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) readings — driven by Red Sea Crisis disruptions and Panama Canal draught restrictions — to renewed carrier pricing power. After a post-Covid normalization period weakened carriers in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025, GSCPI and Drewry World Container Index (WCI) trends have re-synchronized since late 2025, with both now trending upward. Carrier profits, previously in freefall, have stabilized — reinforcing expectations of imminent rate increases triggered by rerouting, port congestion, and tighter effective capacity.

Southeast Asia Supply Chain

Gartner: 73% of Firms Face Longer Delivery Times Amid AI, Geopolitical Risks

Gartner reports that 73% of supply chain organizations face longer delivery times amid geopolitical volatility and fragmented AI adoption. Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions have pushed electronics component lead times to 14–22 weeks. Only 31% of firms have scaled AI beyond pilots, citing data quality and legacy system integration barriers. Fifty-seven percent are now mapping Tier-2/3 suppliers following U.S. Commerce Department guidance in May 2024, while 44% evaluate nearshoring in Mexico and Vietnam. Practitioners emphasize interoperability spend — up 19% YoY — over AI licensing, which rose just 7%.