Freight rates could spike materially in the coming weeks as the downstream impacts of disruption the world over make their mark, and, once again, it appears carriers will be the beneficiaries of global chaos.
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index signals upward rate risk
Analysing links between freight rates, carrier profits, and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the South African Association of Freight Forwarders’ (SAAF) head of research and development, Jacob van Rensburg, said he was expecting a looming acceleration in rates.
He told The Loadstar carrier profitability was shaped by the interaction between freight rates and disruption intensity, rather than by price alone, noting that “rising global supply chain pressure is now pointing to increased upward risk for freight rates”.
“The transmission is not automatic, but if this pressure materialises through rerouting, congestion or tighter effective capacity, freight rates could rise materially over the coming weeks,” Mr van Rensburg added.
Data he provided to The Loadstar showed that, in all but two of the past 22 quarters, carrier profits have risen alongside upticks in disruption, as measured by the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).
Bucking this trend was Q3 24 and Q2 25, with Mr van Rensburg saying that could be explained by the post-Covid normalisation period in which carriers lost power.
“The disruption experienced in these quarters was brought about by the onset of the Red Sea Crisis and the Panama Canal draught restrictions, with carriers at a weak point, but since then we have seen carriers slowly gaining power,” he said.
“In essence, the GSCPI must increase sufficiently for carriers to gain proper price power and not only at the margin. The power game, as we saw during Covid, translates into exponential increases in rates – not only marginal.”
GSCPI and Drewry WCI realign after 2025 dip
Upticks in the GSCPI also corresponded with elevated freight rate levels, with the second quarters of both 2023 and 2024 proving outliers.
Since then, the GSCPI has only climbed, but average rates, according to the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), dropped month on month across all four quarters of 2025, hitting a nadir in the final three months.
Mr van Rensburg noted that this was a consequence of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, which provoked a wave of front-loading as shippers looked to get ahead of the introduction of last April’s wave of levies.
However, since the end of 2025, the GSCPI and Drewry WCI have fallen back into sync, both trending upwards, with carrier profits – which had been in freefall – appearing to have also levelled out, leaving Dr van Rensburg confident a rate spike is imminent.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
