Trucking rates have dropped 27% versus CPI

Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves · Saturday, January 17, 2026

The U.S. trucking industry continues to face a harsh economic reality: spot rates have failed to keep pace with inflation, squeezing carrier margins and contributing to significant financial pressure on truckers nationwide.

Here’s a clear visual of the disconnect — spot trucking rates (via the SONAR National Truckload Index) overlaid against the Consumer Price Index (CPI):

Trucking rates have not kept up with up with inflation, (no surprise to anyone in the industry). If trucking spot rates matched the growth in CPI since March 2020, trucking spot rates would be $.75/more per mile. The national trucking spot rate is $2.75/mile. A CPI adjusted… pic.twitter.com/rESIxwCmZs

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) January 17, 2026

As of mid-January 2026, national trucking spot rates are showing signs of strength following a late-2025 rally, with recent levels approaching multi-year highs (the National Truckload Index is at $2.75 per mile according to SONAR, inclusive of fuel).

However, if spot rates had simply matched the cumulative growth in CPI since March 2020 — before freight markets initially surged early in the pandemic — they would be significantly higher, closer to the equivalent of $3.50 per mile or more. That’s a substantial gap of roughly 27%.

This disparity isn’t abstract. It translates directly into real-world pain for owner-operators and small to mid-sized carriers, who bear the brunt of escalating operational costs. Fuel prices, truck maintenance, insurance, tires, driver wages, and regulatory compliance have all risen sharply since 2020, yet revenue per mile has not kept up. Many truckers are operating at breakeven or worse, with some exiting the industry entirely — a trend that has contributed to gradual capacity tightening observed in late 2025 and into early 2026.

The chart highlights the dramatic post-pandemic trajectory: