According to The Loadstar, ocean freight rates have failed to ease post-peak as capacity constraints tighten, with US imports for September 2026 projected at 2.3 million TEU — 10% above September 2025 — and Shanghai port facing a backlog of 157 vessels as of 12 September.
Demand Resilience Extends Peak Season
Barış Aytan, CargoTrans’ director of client success and commercial operations, noted that expectations of post-peak softening were premature: “When we last had this conversation on 30 July, we had every reason to believe that we were past the peak.” Yet demand has remained robust, stretching the peak season well into September. The strength of US import volumes — now forecast at 2.3 million TEU — has defied earlier assumptions of market cooling, sustaining elevated rate levels across key trade lanes.
China-US west coast rates held near $6,000, while east coast rates climbed above $9,000 during the height of the peak. According to analysis presented during Cargo Trans’ FreightTea webinar, this persistence reflects not just demand strength but structural capacity limitations — making “effective capacity” the dominant pricing driver.
Port Disruptions and Blank Sailings Tighten Supply
Three recent typhoons disrupted operations at Chinese ports, causing vessel delays around Shanghai of seven to 10 days. As of 12 September, 157 vessels were waiting to berth in Shanghai — a congestion level that could extend into October. Concurrently, carriers are withdrawing capacity ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, with 78 blank sailings scheduled between weeks 38 and 43.
The Pacific Southwest route faces the steepest reduction: 29 blank sailings will remove approximately 32% of scheduled capacity on affected services. These deliberate service cuts compound the impact of weather-related port delays, further constraining available space even as import demand stays high.
Geopolitical Shifts and Route Rebalancing
Carriers are cautiously resuming Red Sea transits despite unchanged security risks, drawn by sharply higher freight rates. China-North Europe rates surged from $2,000 several months ago to nearly $5,000 by late July. “There is an appetite for risk right now,” said Mr. Aytan, adding that carriers can justify insurance premiums while capturing elevated yields.
He emphasized that the return to Red Sea routes does not signal reduced danger: “The situation there, the risk landscape there, is not any better than what it was two months ago.” Meanwhile, improving conditions at the Panama Canal may add marginal capacity and narrow the historical rate gap between US east and west coast services — though this relief remains secondary to the overarching capacity shortage.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
