DHL快递全球首席执行官蒋明燊：中国空运运价高于去年同期，部分运力转向AI贸易

Background: Air Cargo Market Recovery and the AI Trade Shift

Air cargo markets are experiencing a notable rebound, with Hong Kong-listed aviation stocks rallying collectively amid renewed optimism about freight rates and shifting trade flows. The recovery is being shaped by a confluence of factors: persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, evolving global supply chain patterns, and the emergence of artificial intelligence-related trade as a new demand driver for air freight capacity. This development carries significant implications for procurement professionals, freight forwarders, and trade operators who must navigate an increasingly complex environment where traditional seasonal patterns are being disrupted by technology-driven cargo flows.

The current market dynamics are set against a backdrop of long-term strategic investments in China’s logistics infrastructure. In October 2018, SF Holding announced its intention to acquire DHL’s supply chain operations in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau for 55 billion yuan. Under the transaction, SF Hong Kong purchased 100% of the equity in DHL’s subsidiaries DHL Hong Kong and DHL Beijing, becoming the sole shareholder. The agreement included a trademark license arrangement allowing the acquired entities to continue leveraging the DHL brand to maintain existing customer relationships and develop new client resources. SF Holding stated that this transaction would enable it to integrate high-quality supply chain logistics assets and reduce exploration costs in the sector. This acquisition represented a significant consolidation in the Chinese logistics market, combining SF Holding’s domestic delivery network with DHL’s international supply chain expertise.

The strategic importance of China to DHL’s global operations has only intensified in the years since that transaction. In an interview with Economic Daily in October 2026, Jiang Mingshen, Global CEO of DHL Express, emphasized that China is not only the world’s second-largest economy but also a critical hub for global manufacturing and merchandise trade, playing a key role in connecting the Asia-Pacific region with global markets. Jiang noted that whether in traditional manufacturing, high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, or emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and life sciences, China has demonstrated strong development vitality and innovation capacity. This assessment reflects the foundational role that China continues to play in DHL’s global network, even as specific market conditions evolve.

Analysis: Executive Commentary on Air Freight Rates and Capacity Allocation

The most immediate market-relevant disclosure from the DHL executive commentary concerns pricing conditions in the air freight sector. Jiang Mingshen indicated that air freight rates this year are higher than the same period last year, representing a meaningful inflection point for an industry that had experienced significant volatility in the post-pandemic period. This year-on-year improvement in pricing conditions suggests that the capacity oversupply that had plagued the market in previous years is gradually being absorbed, even as new sources of demand emerge from non-traditional trade categories.

The reference to capacity shifting toward AI trade points to a structural transformation in air cargo demand that practitioners should monitor closely. Artificial intelligence equipment—including high-performance computing chips, servers, and related infrastructure components—typically requires expedited shipping methods due to high value-to-weight ratios, time-sensitive deployment schedules, and the critical importance of these components to technology supply chains. The allocation of air freight capacity toward this category implies that technology sector demand is competing with traditional cargo flows, potentially tightening availability for other commodities and routes. This shift is occurring alongside ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including Middle East conflicts that have introduced uncertainty into aviation fuel supply chains and routing decisions.

The timing of this market development coincides with a significant corporate milestone for DHL’s China operations. In 2026, Sinotrans-DHL International Air Courier Limited (中外运敦豪) marked its 40th anniversary. The company was established in 1986 as a joint venture between DHL and China Merchants Group’s Sinotrans, making it one of the earliest Sino-foreign joint ventures established during the initial period of China’s reform and opening-up. Over four decades, the joint venture has accumulated investments exceeding 10 billion yuan from both German and Chinese shareholders, continuously expanding its infrastructure and international express service capabilities within China.

The scale of this operational footprint is substantial. Sinotrans-DHL currently maintains an international express service network covering major Chinese cities and industrial clusters, supported by DHL’s global network spanning more than 220 countries and territories. The company operates over 400 commercial and charter flights per week, facilitating both Chinese enterprises’ international expansion and foreign companies’ market entry into China. This network infrastructure positions the joint venture to capture evolving trade flows, including the technology-driven cargo categories that are increasingly shaping air freight demand patterns.

Further evidence of strategic commitment to the China market came in April 2026, when DHL Group and Sinotrans signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen global strategic coordination and initiate a new round of strategic dialogue and long-term planning. This agreement builds upon the existing joint venture framework and signals continued investment in capabilities that can respond to changing trade patterns. The same year, DHL also officially commissioned its Shenzhen Super Hub, adding to previous upgrades of Beijing and Shanghai gateway facilities.

From a sustainability perspective, the operational data disclosed by Sinotrans-DHL reveals ongoing efforts to reduce the environmental footprint of air freight operations. The company has accelerated fleet electrification for last-mile delivery, with electric vehicles now accounting for more than 30% of its delivery fleet. In aviation specifically, DHL Express has achieved a sustainable aviation fuel utilization rate exceeding 10% across its global owned fleet. These metrics matter for procurement and supply chain professionals as environmental compliance and Scope 3 emissions reduction increasingly factor into vendor selection and supply chain design decisions.

Implications for Practitioners

For procurement professionals, freight forwarders, and trade operators, the current market environment presents both opportunities and challenges that require careful navigation. The year-on-year increase in air freight rates signals a transition from the buyer’s market conditions of recent years toward a more balanced pricing environment. Organizations with significant air freight exposure should anticipate tighter budgeting for transportation costs and consider whether existing contract structures provide adequate flexibility to accommodate rate volatility. The shift of capacity toward AI-related cargo suggests that certain lanes and commodity categories may experience disproportionate tightening, particularly those serving technology manufacturing corridors where semiconductor and server components move.

Freight forwarders should evaluate their carrier relationships and capacity commitments in light of these evolving demand patterns. The concentration of AI-related shipments on specific trade lanes—particularly those connecting East Asia with North American and European technology hubs—may create localized capacity constraints even as global aggregate capacity appears sufficient. Forwarders with diversified carrier portfolios and strong relationships with integrated express operators like DHL may be better positioned to secure space during periods of tight supply. The 400-plus weekly flights operated by Sinotrans-DHL represent a significant capacity pool that practitioners can access, particularly for shipments requiring the combination of China domestic collection and international express delivery.

The long-term infrastructure investments by DHL and its Chinese partners also carry implications for supply chain network design. The Shenzhen Super Hub, alongside upgraded Beijing and Shanghai facilities, enhances multimodal connectivity for goods moving through China’s major trade gateways. Procurement organizations evaluating supplier logistics capabilities or considering regional distribution center locations should factor in the presence of these upgraded international express hubs, which can reduce transit times and improve supply chain responsiveness.

Trade compliance professionals should remain attentive to the intersection of technology trade restrictions and logistics routing. As AI-related cargo becomes a larger share of air freight volumes, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding these shipments is likely to intensify. The complex geopolitical environment referenced by DHL executives—including Middle East conflicts that can disrupt aviation fuel supplies and flight routings—adds another layer of operational risk that supply chain planners must incorporate into their contingency frameworks. DHL’s European aviation CEO Mike Parra noted in June 2026 that despite geopolitical uncertainties, European aviation fuel supply has remained stable and dynamic network management would ensure stable summer operations, suggesting that major carriers have developed adaptive capabilities to manage such disruptions.

Finally, the sustainability metrics disclosed by Sinotrans-DHL indicate that environmental performance is becoming an increasingly integral component of logistics service offerings. The 10% sustainable aviation fuel utilization rate, while modest in absolute terms, represents a material commitment given the current constraints on SAF production and distribution. Procurement professionals with corporate sustainability mandates should incorporate such metrics into their carrier evaluation processes, recognizing that partners with verified green logistics programs can contribute to Scope 3 emissions reduction targets while potentially mitigating future regulatory compliance costs.

Looking ahead, the structural factors supporting air freight demand—e-commerce growth, technology supply chain requirements, and the ongoing reconfiguration of global manufacturing networks—appear durable even as cyclical rate fluctuations continue. Jiang Mingshen’s commentary that DHL will maintain its long-term investment strategy in China, continuing to leverage its global network advantages to support more Chinese enterprises in expanding into global markets, suggests that capacity deployment decisions will increasingly prioritize lanes and services aligned with these growth sectors. Practitioners who align their logistics strategies with these evolving patterns will be best positioned to capture value in an increasingly technology-driven trade environment.

Source: 来源见素材（Fri）、来源见素材（Tue）、来源见素材（DHL）快递全球首席执行官蒋明燊）