According to The Loadstar, container shipping spot rates from the Far East to the US are approaching their highest levels seen during the Covid-19 disruption, with carriers increasing capacity on the eastbound transpacific route to capitalize on the surge.
Spot Rates Surge Toward Pandemic Records
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand reported that spot rates from the Far East to the US west and east coasts rose by 324% and 325%, respectively, since 28 February, before the Hormuz crisis. On 17 September, the average spot rate stood at $7,960 per FEU to the US west coast and $11,259 per FEU to the US east coast — just 17.9% and 11.2% below their respective pandemic-era peaks of $9,699 (February 2022) and $12,683 (January 2022).
Geopolitics and Market Timing Drive Rate Pressure
“That leaves freight rates on these critical trades just 18% and 11% short of the all-time high set during the Covid-19 disruption. With bunker prices pushing fuel surcharges higher, surpassing the pandemic peak cannot be ruled out, which would be an extraordinary market development,” said Peter Sand.
“If a freight rate record is broken, it is most likely to occur on the trade into US East Coast, but even if we do not see a new all-time high, the fact we are even discussing the possibility demonstrates how sensitive critical ocean container shipping trades are to geopolitical forces and how a regional conflict in the Middle East can have major implications at a global level.” — Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta
Capacity Expansion and Utilisation Trends
Carriers are responding to market strength by adding capacity, especially for the US east coast: offered capacity on the Far East–US East Coast trade is 6–7% higher in September than in August. Sea-Intelligence data shows eastbound transpacific vessel utilisation has risen to 85–90% in 2026, roughly eight percentage points above pre-pandemic (2018–19) levels of 80–85%.
Fleet Expansion Signals Future Capacity Shifts
While disciplined capacity deployment supports current tightness, fleet expansion plans may challenge future utilisation. Maersk’s orderbook now stands at 35% of its existing fleet following an order for 26 large vessels; MSC and CMA CGM each hold orderbooks equal to 39% of their current fleets, while COSCO’s stands at 52%. These expansions coincide with shippers advancing cargo ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, prompting expectations of one final rate increase at the start of October.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
