According to Air Cargo News, global air cargo demand rose 6% year on year in August 2026, extending a resilient ‘hot summer’ after a 5% increase in July and reinforcing continued strength during traditionally quieter seasonal months.
Air Freight Rates Ease Gradually
Global air cargo spot rates — valid for up to one month — stood at an average of $3.13 per kg in August, remaining 24% higher year on year. The pace of annual rate growth has eased for a third consecutive month: from a peak of 41% in May, to 38% in June, 28% in July, and further softening in August. Month-on-month, spot rates fell 3%, a smaller decline than July’s 6% drop.
Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, noted the dual perspective shaping market sentiment: “Rates are easing their way down month-on-month, and the gap to last year’s levels is narrowing, perfectly in line with what we expected, and airlines will be hoping to hold on at the current level until the busier season starts.” He added that shippers remain dissatisfied with costs still 24% above 2025 levels — a burden with material impact on budgets.
With demand growth continuing to outpace supply and jet fuel prices rising again recently, the descent in rates is proceeding incrementally. Capacity in August was flat year on year, yet Xeneta’s dynamic load factor — measuring capacity utilisation — reached 61%, three percentage points higher than in August 2025.
E-commerce Export Shifts Reshape Corridors
A structural shift emerged from e-commerce data: China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 11% year on year in July 2026, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data. Exports to Europe dropped most sharply — down 25% year on year — the steepest regional decline. This followed the EU’s removal of its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value goods on 1 July and introduction of a flat €3 per item customs duty.
Van de Wouw observed that the reaction mirrors China-US trade patterns after the US removed its de minimis threshold in 2025: initial dip followed by recovery. By July 2026, China-US e-commerce exports were 23% higher year on year — albeit from a lowered base. He expects a similar rebound for China-Europe volumes, noting that consumers are unlikely to abandon major Chinese platforms given persistent price advantages.
The short-term volume contraction is already visible in freight pricing. China-to-Western Europe spot rates averaged $3.85 per kg in August, falling a further 6% month on month after July’s steep 22% decline. Northeast Asia to Europe rates dropped 3%, while Southeast Asia to Europe declined 7% to $4.20 per kg.
Corridor Divergence Driven by Regional Dynamics
In week 35 (24–30 August), Middle East inbound spot rates remained sharply elevated versus pre-conflict levels: up 100% from South Asia, 66% from Europe, 21% from Northeast Asia, and 20% from Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, AI-related shipments continue to support transpacific lanes: Northeast Asia to North America spot rates averaged $5.76 per kg in August — up 2% month on month and 36% above late-February levels. Southeast Asia to North America rates rose 34% over the same period.
In contrast, transatlantic lanes saw abundant summer belly capacity keep Europe-to-North America spot rates 25% below late-February levels — though they firmed slightly, rising 2% month on month in August. Van de Wouw affirmed the global air cargo market remains on track for 4% growth in 2026, surpassing forecasts made at the end of 2025.
Source: Air Cargo News
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
