War in the Persian Gulf decimated what was looking like a bright spot for container trades at the start of 2026, but with a deal between the two antagonists now agreed (if not yet signed) there is renewed hope the trade may see something of a late-year bounce.
Trade collapse and data-driven impact
After starting with growth rates of 17.4% and 27%, year on year, volumes South Asia/Middle East to Sub-Saharan Africa collapsed in March and April, falling 15% and 8.5%, respectively, latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS).
Forwarders told The Loadstar anything heading east out of Asia toward Africa had been hit by the loss of access to the Persian Gulf, one described the trade as a “dog’s dinner” since the onset of the war, and seemingly its influence is continuing to be felt.
US-Iran deal confirmed, pending signature
However, after building up the prospect that a deal between the US and Iran may have finally been struck, it was confirmed last night – coinciding with the start of celebrations marking 250 years of American Independence and President Trump’s birthday – if not signed.
The deal is a 60-day ceasefire extension that, while a fuller agreement is reached, includes provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (providing time for mine-clearing) and suspends fighting in Iran and Lebanon.
Carrier response and operational timeline
Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen said there may be “a somewhat cautious approach” from carriers, noting AIS data from Vesselfinder gave no indication of “an immediate surge in vessels heading for a transit following the announcement of a deal”.
“If the deal holds and it appears safe to transit [Hormuz], container carriers are likely to begin gradually shifting back to calls in the Persian Gulf, potentially with dedicated extra-loaders, initially to clear the backlog created by the crisis.” — Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime
He added: “A full return to pre-crisis normality will likely take two to three months. Not just because vessel rotations need to be altered, but we also need to see empty return patterns normalised, plus there will be cargo, which has been waiting elsewhere ready to ship into the Gulf.”
Risk factors and regional urgency
Between now and Friday, all eyes will be on the lookout for anything that may scupbeing put to paper, with Israeli strikes against Lebanon one of the more likely powder kegs that will explode a deal several months in the making.
For those active on Middle East/South Asia-Sub-Saharan Africa trades, the deal cannot come soon enough, with forwarders telling The Loadstar shippers have already been in touch to discuss possibilities.
Resilient outbound flows and South African momentum
According to CTS, Sub-Saharan Africa-to-Middle East/South Asia trade proved somewhat more resilient to the impact of the situation in the Persian Gulf, managing three successive months of double-digit year-on-year increase before a collapse in April.
And this seems to be where much of the eager discussions are taking place, with exporters in South Africa proving particularly energised about the opportunities should the deal get over the line at the end of this week.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
