According to www.freightwaves.com, the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) recorded a transportation capacity reading of 28.4 in April 2026 — a decline of 10.9 percentage points from March and the second-fastest contraction in the index’s nearly 10-year history. The previous steepest drop occurred in September 2020 during the pandemic’s first peak season.
Record Pricing–Capacity Divergence
Transportation prices surged to a diffusion index reading of 95 in April, up 5.6 points month-over-month — the second-highest growth rate on record. This created a spread of 67 points between capacity (28.4) and pricing (95), the widest gap ever tracked by the LMI. As the report states:
“Taken together, this means that we have never before tracked the transportation metric getting simultaneously tighter or more expensive.” — FreightWaves, May 5, 2026
The report attributes this acceleration to pre-existing upward pressure entering 2026, compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting spikes in fuel costs.
Tender Rejections and Utilization Surge
The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA) — a proxy for truckload capacity tightness — shows elevated rejection rates across 2026 (blue shaded area), significantly above 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line), and 2023 (pink line). Transportation utilization rose to 69.6, up 6.7 points and the highest since November 2021. Upstream firms (manufacturers and wholesalers) reported an even sharper utilization reading of 76.1, which was 21 points higher than downstream retailers — reflecting inventory stock-up behavior driven by fuel cost hedging.
Warehouse and Aggregate Cost Pressures
Warehouse capacity contracted to 45.5 (below the 50 expansion threshold), while utilization expanded to 64.4 (+4.6 points) and prices jumped to 72.7 (+5.3 points). The overall LMI stood at 69.9 in April — up 4.2 points sequentially and the highest since April 2022. Inventory levels rose to 56.3 (+1.5 points), with most accumulation occurring in the latter half of the month. Inventory costs held at 74.7 (down 1.5 points but still near historic highs), with small firms reporting costs 7 points higher than larger peers due to scale limitations.
Forward-Looking Expectations and Inflation Risk
Logistics managers forecast continued strain over the next 12 months: capacity is expected to remain constrained at 33.2, utilization at 74.5, and pricing at 93.9. Aggregate logistics costs (combining transportation, warehousing, and inventory) reached 242.4, the fastest expansion rate since April 2022. The report warns:
“Supply-driven inflation is more difficult for the Fed to combat than demand-driven inflation because higher interest rates cannot create greater supply (in some cases they actually may hinder supply). If logistics costs remain elevated, it is likely there will be at least some inflation.” — FreightWaves, May 5, 2026
The LMI is jointly produced by Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in collaboration with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Source: FreightWaves
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
