1. Conflict Erupts: 2026’s Biggest Black Swan Event for Global Shipping
On February 28, 2026, joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran rapidly escalated into a “black swan” event for the global supply chain. Following the conflict, logistics activities in the Middle East immediately descended into chaos, with air and ocean carriers implementing temporary suspensions and service disruptions that extended far beyond the region.
According to Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express, speaking at the TPM26 conference hosted by S&P Global, more than 700 vessels were backed up during the first week of March alone due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, directly impacted approximately 10% of the world’s container fleet.
2. Scale of Impact: 2 Million TEU at Risk of Delays
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, provided a more detailed impact assessment at TPM26. He noted that while the conflict’s scale is “definitely not pandemic level—not even Red Sea scale,” it remains a “major disaster” for Gulf countries.
“The basic perception was normalization of Red Sea shipping, release of substantial amounts of capacity over summer, weakening global supply and demand. That’s now not going to happen.” — Lars Jensen, CEO, Vespucci Maritime
Jensen estimated that roughly 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) would be impacted based on cargo aboard vessels from Gulf ports or booked within the next 90 days. Even if the situation resolves quickly, bottlenecks will persist, and costs will continue to be levied onto shippers.
3. Red Sea Return Off the Table: Shipping Industry Set Back Over a Year
Prior to the conflict, the shipping industry had been slowly advancing plans to resume Red Sea routes. Maersk’s structural return of its MECL service in January 2026 was seen as a positive signal of industry recovery. However, since late 2023, major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have been avoiding the Suez Canal due to continued Houthi attacks on cargo ships, opting instead to route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
Jensen stated unequivocally that any optimistic expectations regarding Red Sea operational normalization have now completely disappeared. Major carriers have withdrawn service resumption plans, meaning the Red Sea situation has regressed by more than a year.
“So realistically, we are probably looking at at least six months into the future before anybody’s going to start contemplating doing this again, and that is if we stop the Iranian war basically today,” Jensen’s statement revealed industry concerns about the situation’s prolonged nature.
4. Surge in Surcharges: Carriers to Impose “As High As Possible” Fees
Facing geopolitical risks, the pricing logic in the shipping industry is undergoing a fundamental shift. Jensen stated bluntly: “Shipping is no longer about supply and demand—it’s about surcharges.” Due to the Middle East situation, carriers will implement “as many and as high surcharges as humanly possible,” whether as fuel-related fees or emergency conflict charges.
While the specific form, magnitude, and duration of surcharges remain unclear, their impact has already spread globally. Although the conflict primarily affects the Middle East market and Asia-Europe lanes, U.S. shippers also face risks.
The core driver is rapidly rising fuel prices. At the time of reporting, Brent crude oil prices hovered near $90 per barrel. The air cargo and trucking industries will also bear the pressure of higher fuel costs. Jensen further noted that carriers’ variable bunker fuel surcharges are typically adjusted quarterly with one month’s notice, meaning the current oil price surge will be reflected in Q3 2026 surcharges.
5. Contract Negotiation Dynamics Reverse: Carriers Regain Bargaining Power
The 2026 shipping market was initially expected to see slight overcapacity and downward pressure on rates, but the conflict completely changed this outlook. Jensen pointed out that unless a “miracle in the Middle East” occurs and carriers rapidly reverse their Red Sea-related decisions, the market will tilt back in favor of carriers.
This shift was already evident in contract negotiations at TPM26. Shippers had hoped to finalize annual contracts at lower rates, while carriers hesitated about accepting unfavorable terms. “And then the weekend happened, and now we see carriers stalling on finalizing contracts,” Jensen explained. “This is exactly why, because the market has, right now, changed fundamentally for 2026 in terms of global supply and demand balance.”
6. Impact on U.S. Imports: Limited Short-Term Effect but Inflationary Pressures Loom
According to the Global Port Tracker update released March 9 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, it is currently too early to assess the impact of the Iran conflict on U.S. container imports.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, in a press release.
However, the report simultaneously warned that climbing oil and gasoline prices will drive structural inflation. If these costs squeeze U.S. consumer discretionary spending and manufacturing activity, import volumes could be dampened.
Related Reading
- Maersk 10 Ships Trapped in Persian Gulf: 2026 Global Shipping Crisis Analysis
- Salalah Port Surges to 4.3M TEU with 78% LSCI Rebound in Q1 2026 as Hormuz and Red Sea Chokepoints Close
本文由 AI 辅助生成，经 SCI.AI 编辑团队审核校验后发布。This article was generated with AI assistance and reviewed by the SCI.AI editorial team.
Source: supplychaindive.com
