Air cargo rates are up 30% year over year and volumes have grown about 6%, according to FreightWaves, as surging AI equipment demand offsets slower e-commerce and automotive flows. The strength has defied forecasts of a 2025 softening after a down 2024. Meanwhile, Walmart is deploying Wing and Zipline drones across nearly 300 stores; Zipline raised $1.5 billion and Wing plans a $125 million Texas factory ahead of anticipated FAA beyond-line-of-sight rules.
According to FreightWaves, air cargo rates have climbed 30% year over year and volumes have grown roughly 6%, as surging demand for AI-related equipment offsets weaker e-commerce and automotive flows and defies forecasts of a 2025 slowdown.
The market’s strength has surprised analysts who expected significant softening in 2025 following the post-COVID hangover of 2024. After a down year as the pandemic shipping boom faded, the market rebounded sharply at the end of that year and has continued through 2025, according to reporting from FreightWaves.
FreightWaves’ Eric Kulisch attributed the rally to a combination of ocean disruptions, reduced Middle East carrier capacity and surging demand for AI-related equipment. Two years ago, the de minimis crackdown was widely predicted to crater air freight and parcel volumes, but that contraction never fully materialized.
“We thought this year would be a lot softer, but it hasn’t — growth has been quite robust.” — Eric Kulisch, FreightWaves
AI hardware fills the de minimis gap
The single biggest structural shift keeping air freight aloft is the rise of AI hardware shipments. As stricter customs and regulatory treatment of de minimis imports curtailed business-to-consumer parcel flows into the U.S. and Europe, AI equipment demand stepped in to fill the gap.
Freight forwarder Kuehne+Nagel has also flagged slower automotive exports out of Europe as an additional headwind that AI cargo is helping to offset, according to the report. The dynamic has kept the market from the steep correction many analysts had anticipated for 2025.
Walmart scales drone delivery with Wing and Zipline
On the drone delivery front, Walmart is pursuing a hybrid strategy, deploying both Wing — an Alphabet subsidiary — and Zipline across nearly 300 stores nationally.
Zipline last week announced a $1.5 billion funding raise, earmarked in part for manufacturing scale-up. Wing said it will invest $125 million in a Texas factory to build delivery drones, with plans to eventually produce tens of thousands of aircraft.
- Zipline: $1.5 billion raise, partly for manufacturing scale-up
- Wing: $125 million Texas drone factory, targeting tens of thousands of aircraft
- Walmart: hybrid Wing and Zipline deployment across nearly 300 stores
FAA rules loom over beyond-line-of-sight flights
All of this activity is building toward anticipated FAA rulemaking that would establish clearer operating standards for beyond-line-of-sight drone flights. Currently, operators must obtain individual waivers to fly drones outside a direct operator’s line of sight, limiting deployment scale and geography.
New rules are expected to significantly accelerate commercial rollout. The competitive landscape for last-mile drone delivery is sharpening around Walmart, Amazon and DoorDash, each racing to operationalize so-called quick commerce — 30-minute or faster delivery — which carriers and retailers believe drives higher consumer engagement and loyalty.
For heavier payloads between cities, autonomous aircraft capable of carrying several hundred pounds are seen as the more viable middle-mile solution, while lightweight drones carrying approximately 5 pounds remain the near-term tool for doorstep delivery in suburban markets, according to the report.
Source: FreightWaves
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
