According to Wood Mackenzie, India is on track to commission more solar capacity in 2026 than in any year in its installation history. However, the policy driving this surge is simultaneously creating a supply crunch that will push system prices significantly higher.
Installations surge ahead of deadline
India added 34 GW dc of solar capacity in the first half of 2026. This figure is 38% above H1 2025 levels. Developers raced to commission projects ahead of the June deadline for the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II).
Full-year additions are forecast to exceed 50 GW dc. This will surpass the previous record of 49 GW dc set in 2025. The accelerated build-out was further driven by the phased removal of waivers for inter-state transmission charges. These charges fell from 75% to 50% for projects commissioned from July 2026 onwards.
Momentum is expected to slow in H2 2026. Cell capacity constraints and rising module prices will weigh on project development. However, ALMM-II waivers granted for net metering and open access projects until 31 December 2026 could provide upside.
Import dependency shifts rather than disappears
While ALMM-II has reduced India’s direct cell imports from China, sourcing has pivoted toward Southeast Asia. Indonesian cell imports nearly tripled in early 2026. In the first five months of 2026, India imported 5 GW of wafers and 20 GW of cells.
Wafer imports climbed 86% year-on-year. This growth supports domestic cell production. India has imposed a 20% basic customs duty on imported cells and modules. In September 2025, the DGTR recommended additional anti-dumping duties of up to 30% on Chinese-origin solar cells and modules.
This makes Indonesian-origin supply an increasingly attractive alternative. Circumvention scrutiny may follow given the pattern of Chinese cell rerouting observed in other markets.
Prices remain elevated through 2027
Even as new cell capacity comes online, Wood Mackenzie expects insufficient utilization. Supply will fall short of demand in 2027. Cell production is projected to reach 29 GW next year. It will still fall 21 GW short of the average annual module demand of 50 GW.
As a result, system prices are forecast to decline by just 3% between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027. 130 GW of additional cell capacity is expected to come online by 2029. This requires a compound annual growth rate of 49% from the 2026 full-build baseline of 88 GW.
Manufacturing gaps drive transition costs
“India’s ALMM-II mandate is a bold step toward building a fully integrated domestic solar supply chain, but cell manufacturing capacity has simply not kept pace with modules,” said Sureet Singh, Research Analyst, Wood Mackenzie. “The near-term cost impact is unavoidable, and developers will need to navigate a difficult transition period before prices stabilize.”
Prices are expected to stabilize through 2029. Additional cell capacity will come online during this period. “The rollout of ALMM-II may follow ALMM-I’s pattern of multiple exemptions, though the impact should be more contained given greater preparedness among suppliers, developers and policymakers,” said Mathew Thomas, Research Analyst, Wood Mackenzie.
The MNRE plans to implement ALMM-III in June 2028. This will extend the mandate to solar wafers. It signals that India’s domestic content ambitions are far from complete.
This article is translated from overseas media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
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“excerpt”:”India is set to commission more solar capacity in 2026 than in any year in its installation history, with forecasts exceeding 50 GW dc. According to Wood Mackenzie, the surge is driven by the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate. Developers raced to commission projects ahead of the June deadline. Full-year additions will surpass the previous record of 49 GW dc set in 2025. However, the policy is creating a supply crunch. Cell manufacturing capacity has not kept pace with modules. System prices will remain elevated through 2027. Import dependency is shifting toward Southeast Asia. Indonesian cell imports nearly tripled in early 2026. Wafer imports climbed 86% year-on-year. India imposed a 20% basic customs duty on imported cells. The DGTR recommended additional anti-dumping duties of up to 30% on Chinese-origin products. Prices are forecast to decline by just 3% between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027. 130 GW of additional cell capacity is expected to come online by 2029. The MNRE plans to implement ALMM-III in June 2028. It will extend the mandate to solar wafers. India’s domestic content ambitions are far from complete.
Source: woodmac.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
