Carriers Tighten Capacity Ahead of Peak Season
According to The Loadstar, container shipping carriers are already increasing blanked sailings in anticipation of the peak season, a move driven by weak demand growth, elevated fuel costs, and ongoing geopolitical disruption. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said carriers are becoming more aggressive in managing capacity, with reports of rolled containers at some Far East origins. “We are already now seeing carriers increase blanked sailings,” he noted.
Blank Sailing Trends and Alliances
Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at Xeneta, said blanked sailings for June and July are forecasted to be on trend with previous years, though they can shift rapidly. She highlighted that April saw a 37% year-over-year increase in blank sailings. “They [carriers] are using blanks defensively and operationally,” she said. Linerlytica reported that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd revised their Gemini Cooperation agreement to allow blank sailings during Christmas, the calendar new year, and other holiday periods—previously restricted to Chinese New Year or Golden Week—shortening the notice period to 6–8 weeks.
- Gemini Alliance has a 2.8% sailing cancellation rate, the lowest among the four main alliances.
- MSC’s cancellation rate is 15.9%, Premier Alliance 17.1%, and Ocean Alliance 19.9%.
- The revised agreement comes as Maersk’s ocean shipping earnings deteriorated in Q1 2026 and the Gemini partners underperformed peers in EBIT margin.
Freight Rate Trends by Trade Route
Despite tighter capacity, freight rates vary across trade routes. According to Freightos data cited by Levine, transpacific spot rates have risen steadily since the start of the conflict. Asia–US west coast rates reached approximately $2,800 per 40ft container, up around $1,000 from earlier levels. East coast rates climbed to about $4,300 per 40ft. In contrast, Asia–Europe rates remained more stable, with North Europe at $2,800 and the Mediterranean at $3,500 per 40ft.
“We are seeing fuel costs being passed on,” said Judah Levine. “Current low-season levels remain significantly higher than during the previous low-demand period, when Asia–Europe rates dropped to $1,700–$2,000.”
Risk of Demand Disappointment
Levine warned that despite the capacity tightening, peak season demand could disappoint if inflation and high energy prices continue to suppress consumer spending. “There could be lower demand for freight,” he said, which would leave carriers still facing high fuel surcharges. The current strategy of blanked sailings aims to stabilize rates, but the long-term effectiveness depends on real-world demand patterns.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
