According to The Loadstar, a surge in vessel delays driven by typhoons and port disruption across Asia has rendered 8.5% of the global container fleet effectively unavailable — equivalent to 3 million teu of vessel capacity, a volume comparable to the world’s fifth-largest carrier.
Schedule Reliability Plummets
Schedule reliability fell to just below 50% in August, following a sharp deterioration in July. Sea-Intelligence reported a 12.7% decline in reliability over those two months — a drop steeper than all but three periods since measurement began in 2011.
The average delay for late-arriving vessels rose to 6.8 days, a level exceeded only during the most severe phases of the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions. Sea-Intelligence identified the June–August period as the largest two-month increase in vessel delays recorded in its entire dataset.
“The main driver of the worsening delays, and hence capacity absorption, is a continuing stream of typhoons impacting major ports in Asia,” Sea-Intelligence explained.
Capacity Absorption at Historic Highs
Between 2011 and 2019, an average of 2.2% of global container capacity was absorbed by vessel delays. The current 8.5% represents a deviation of more than six percentage points — a shift Sea-Intelligence said is having a significant effect on the global supply/demand balance.
For comparison, pandemic-era congestion peaked at 13.8% before falling to 3.6% over 16 months; during the Red Sea crisis, absorption reached 6.5% before declining to 3.7% within six months.
Based on historical recovery rates of roughly 0.6 percent per month, Sea-Intelligence estimated it could take seven to ten months for capacity absorption to return to the low point recorded in June 2025.
Outlook Extends Into 2027
Sea-Intelligence warned that congestion could persist well into next year — and added: “The current situation is therefore unlikely to be fully resolved before Chinese New Year peak in 2027.” That holiday falls on 6 February, meaning Asian ports may still face bottlenecks as carriers and shippers prepare for the pre-CNY cargo surge.
The consultancy noted that whether this disruption proves temporary or evolves into a persistent constraint will become clearer as the typhoon season subsides and its effects on Asian port operations ease.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
