China's trade volume grew roughly twice as fast in 2025 as forecasters predicted at the start of the year, and its 2026 trade forecast has been upgraded to project faster growth than 2025, according to Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU's Stern School of Business. Speaking to Air Cargo News, Altman said China's import growth has strengthened while its export mix has shifted toward electric and hybrid vehicles, technology products, intermediate goods and capital goods. Southeast Asia is meanwhile emerging as a trade hotspot, with Vietnam and Indonesia particularly strong and Malaysia and Thailand recording recent growth, a trend expected to feature in the next DHL Trade Atlas due in March 2027.
China remains a powerful driver of global trade and airfreight even as production and supply chains expand across Southeast Asia, according to Air Cargo News, which cited analysis showing the country’s trade growth has outpaced earlier predictions.
Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at New York University’s Stern School of Business, told the publication that China’s trade performance had defied expectations built on trade policy tensions and geopolitics.
“If we look at 2025, China’s trade volume grew about twice as fast as what was predicted at the beginning of the year. China’s trade forecast has also been upgraded for 2026 to call for actually faster growth in 2026 than 2025.” — Steven Altman, Director, DHL Initiative on Globalization, NYU Stern School of Business
Altman leads the research initiative behind both the DHL Globalization Tracker and the DHL Trade Atlas. He said forecasts had anticipated a substantial slowdown in China’s trade growth given the trade policy environment, but that slowdown did not materialise.
Imports strengthen as export mix shifts
For a period, China’s airfreight flows were driven mainly by exports while imports remained weak. Altman said that pattern has changed, with stronger growth now visible in China’s inbound trade as well.
The export mix has also moved up the value chain, shifting toward electric and hybrid vehicles, technology-oriented products, intermediate goods and capital goods. Altman described this as a transformation in China’s role as an exporter.
“China keeps having more and more sophisticated mix of exports, and as they’ve lost competitiveness in some of the industries, they’ve rewarded and made up for it in new industries where China has become very strong.” — Steven Altman
He noted China has become a particularly important exporter in the automotive industry on the strength of electric and hybrid vehicles, alongside the broader shift toward intermediate and capital goods shipments.
Southeast Asia emerges as trade hotspot
Southeast Asia has simultaneously developed into a trade powerhouse, partly fuelled by China Plus One diversification. Growing regional economies have driven a steady increase in production and supply chains over the past decade, a shift accelerated by the US-China trade war and tariffs.
Last year, airlines moved capacity from China to Southeast Asia and away from the transpacific trade lane toward Asia-Europe, although the transpacific lane has since regained strength, according to the report.
“If I think about what’s likely to happen over 10 years, I think Southeast Asia is really one of the most powerful hotspots in terms of global trade growth.” — Steven Altman
Altman said this assessment is likely to be reflected in the next edition of the DHL Trade Atlas, which measures the speed and scale of trade growth and is due for release in March 2027. The most recent edition showed multiple countries in the region performing well on those measures.
- Vietnam and Indonesia were described as particularly strong
- Malaysia and Thailand have also recorded strong growth recently
Altman attributed Southeast Asia’s momentum to macroeconomic growth and geography, placing the region at the centre of global trade growth and close to South Asia and India, where trade is also expanding.
“Countries so far in Southeast Asia have been able to play this connector role in the current period of geopolitical tensions, and that has been a strong, powerful driver for their trade growth.” — Steven Altman
Relocation adds trade rather than reducing it
On production shifting from China to Southeast Asia, Altman argued that less sophisticated manufacturing in destination countries generates more trade opportunities rather than fewer.
He explained that when a firm relocates production from China to Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand or Malaysia, the new location lacks China’s domestic supplier base. More inputs must therefore be brought in to produce in economies that are smaller and less advanced in manufacturing than China.
“So often, a relocation from China to Southeast Asian countries results in more trade because of that supply chain effect, and also it brings foreign direct investment as well. So it ultimately results in more rather than less international activity.” — Steven Altman
The result, according to Altman, is additional international activity rather than a simple substitution of one trading hub for another.
Source: Air Cargo News
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
