According to The Loadstar, container spot freight rates on major east-west ocean trades recorded their first weekly decline since late April — signaling an early shift in market dynamics amid rising carrier capacity and easing demand pressure.
First Rate Decline in Three Months
The World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry showed a 1% week-on-week drop on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route, bringing rates down to $4,873 per 40ft. On the Shanghai-Genoa leg, rates fell more steeply — by 3% — settling at $6,300 per 40ft. This marks the first sustained downward movement since the end of April 2026, coinciding with the traditional onset of peak season pricing strength.
Despite carriers introducing new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates ranging from $7,900 to $8,500 per 40ft midweek, competitive rate cuts quickly undermined those efforts. Linerlytica reported that “
Aggressive rate cuts by Gemini partners triggered rival carriers to slash rates through the end of July
”, with Hapag-Lloyd initiating reductions below $5,000 per 40ft, prompting Maersk and CMA CGM to follow with offers of $4,800–$4,900 per 40ft for sailings in the final week of July.
Capacity Surge Drives Market Shift
Xeneta’s senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll attributed the softening not to collapsing demand — but to surging carrier capacity. According to Xeneta data, offered capacity on the Far East-North Europe trade rose 9.5% week on week (four-week rolling average), while Far East-Mediterranean capacity jumped 11% over the same period.
Stausbøll explained: “
The shift is driven by carriers continuing to ramp up offered capacity across the main fronthaul trades, and the front-loading demand that fuelled the spike beginning to ease
. Shippers had pulled forward volumes in May to avoid anticipated Q3 bunker adjustment factor increases and mitigate supply chain disruption stemming from Middle East tensions — effectively compressing the peak season into May and June.” She added that this front-loading created an artificial capacity squeeze, pushing spot rates higher than fundamentals would otherwise support.
Transpacific Shows Parallel Trends
The transpacific corridor mirrored the trend: the WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles route declined 3% to $6,272 per 40ft, while Shanghai-New York held flat at $7,879 per 40ft. Xeneta reported US west coast transpacific capacity increased 6.5% week on week, and US east coast capacity rose 15.4%.
However, Drewry noted that nine blanked sailings are scheduled for the transpacific next week — a proactive capacity management measure expected to prevent significant further declines in spot rates. Stausbøll cautioned: “It is too early to call this a sustained decline and spot rates remain massively elevated compared with pre-crisis levels — Far East to US West Coast is still up 252% since the end of February.” She also flagged geopolitical risk, noting that escalating military strikes between Iran and the US could pause the softening if the situation deteriorates further.
Tariff Uncertainty Could Reverse Momentum
US west coast forwarder Freight Right warned that transpacific market direction hinges on clarity around US tariff policy. “
The next two weeks are likely to determine the direction of the transpacific market — if tariff uncertainty is resolved with lower or eliminated duties, import demand could quickly rebound, potentially creating an extended peak season through August and September, and pushing ocean rates higher again
,” it stated. Conversely, if tariffs remain or increase, booking volumes are expected to weaken further — adding downward pressure on freight rates.
Additional context emerged from the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which registered a 3.5% drop on its Shanghai-North Europe base port leg to $5,422 per 40ft, and a 4.5% decline on the Shanghai-Mediterranean leg to $6,358 per 40ft. As a forward-looking indicator, the SCFI’s movement strongly suggests continued downward momentum in the WCI for the coming week.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
