According to thehindubusinessline.com, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth forecast to 3.9%, more than double its earlier projection of 1.9% issued in March 2026.
Brighter outlook amid geopolitical strain
The revision follows stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2026, when merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% despite disruptions to energy, fertilizer, and transport markets. Asia is projected to lead merchandise export growth in 2026 at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7% and Africa at 5.6%, according to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released on October 8, 2026.
AI-enabling goods drive growth
Trade in AI-enabling goods rose 67% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 and accounted for 47% of merchandise trade growth in value terms. The WTO attributes this surge to increased AI-related investment, which has outweighed the drag from reduced shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers — a key factor offsetting downward pressure on trade volumes.
Services trade downgraded amid conflict impact
In contrast, the WTO downgraded its services trade forecast: growth is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2026, down from an earlier projection of 4.8%, before rebounding to 6.4% in 2027. The report notes that while AI is lifting trade in computer and financial services, the West Asia conflict is weighing heavily on transport, tourism, and construction services.
Regional disparities widen
Exports from West Asia are forecast to contract 17.2%, while those from the Commonwealth of Independent States are projected to decline 3.9%. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized inclusivity, stating:
“The numbers reflect trade resilience in action. When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General, WTO
She cautioned that not all countries can access emerging opportunities such as AI and stressed the need for the trading system to “bridge gaps so that opportunities are open to all.”
Source: thehindubusinessline.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
