According to www.scmp.com, Houthi militants have threatened a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia — targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — escalating risks for Asian oil importers already coping with severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict.
Strategic chokepoint under threat
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and a critical maritime corridor for Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia. A full closure would disrupt petroleum flows of 7.4 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 7 per cent of global oil output, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. This volume dwarfs typical daily shipments through alternative routes and underscores the strait’s irreplaceable role in Asia’s energy supply chain.
The threat emerged in a Monday statement from the Houthis, who cited Saudi Arabia’s 12-year restrictions on food, medicine, and essential goods entering Yemen via crossings, ports, and airports — alongside alleged resource plundering — as justification for the blockade warning. The group’s military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, delivered the announcement in a televised address from Sana’a, Yemen.
Compounding disruption in Gulf shipping lanes
The Bab el-Mandeb threat compounds existing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, the primary export route for Gulf oil. Shipping through Hormuz has slowed sharply since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in mid-2026, leaving Asian buyers with dwindling alternatives for Middle Eastern crude. With both chokepoints simultaneously at risk, analysts warn that oil prices could surge above US$100 per barrel — a level last breached in early 2022 amid similar geopolitical stress.
Jorge Leon, senior vice-president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted:
“While the Houthis have not yet clarified how the blockade would be enforced, their previous campaign against commercial vessels demonstrates both the capability and willingness to disrupt Red Sea shipping.”
That assessment is grounded in documented Houthi attacks on merchant vessels since late 2023, including over 50 confirmed incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden between January and July 2026, per data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Regional response and mitigation efforts
In response, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen vowed to “respond firmly” to threats against commercial shipping and confirmed it had begun implementing protective measures for vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These include enhanced naval patrols, real-time vessel tracking coordination with regional navies, and rerouting advisories issued jointly with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. However, no coalition force currently maintains a permanent naval presence in the strait — unlike the multinational Combined Task Force 153, which operates in the broader Red Sea region.
Asian refiners — particularly those in India, Japan, and South Korea — are reassessing procurement strategies. India’s state-owned Indian Oil Corporation reported in early July that it had increased spot purchases from West Africa and the US Gulf Coast, while Japan’s JXTG Holdings confirmed it was accelerating trials of longer-haul tanker charters capable of bypassing both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — albeit at a 15–20 per cent freight cost premium.
Supply chain implications for energy buyers
For supply chain professionals managing energy logistics, the dual chokepoint risk necessitates immediate contingency planning. Unlike the Panama Canal or Suez Canal disruptions — where rerouting via Cape Horn or Cape of Good Hope adds predictable time and cost — simultaneous closures of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would eliminate all direct sea routes from the Persian Gulf to East Asia. That scenario forces reliance on overland pipelines (e.g., the Saudi–Jordan pipeline, capacity 120,000 barrels per day) or rail-linked transshipment hubs — options with negligible scale relative to current demand.
Practitioners report rising insurance premiums for Red Sea transits: hull-and-machinery rates have spiked 300 per cent since May 2026, while war-risk premiums now exceed US$100,000 per voyage for tankers exceeding 100,000 deadweight tons. As one Singapore-based chartering manager told SCMP on condition of anonymity:
“We’re treating every Bab el-Mandeb transit as high-risk — not hypothetical. If this escalates beyond rhetoric, the next price trigger won’t be $100; it’ll be $120, and it’ll happen inside two weeks.”
Source: South China Morning Post
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
