DHL forecasts global goods trade will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4% through 2029—faster than the prior decade’s 2.7%—as AI infrastructure investment offsets tariff and geopolitical headwinds. AI-related product trade drove 42% of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025. Meanwhile, trade volumes dropped 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the UAE in early 2026 versus 2025, reflecting localized impacts of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, emphasized that AI logistics dependencies—not tariffs—are now the dominant force shaping global trade flows.
According to DC Velocity, DHL projects global goods trade will expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, outpacing the 2.7% annual growth rate recorded over the previous decade.
AI Infrastructure Drives Trade Resilience
Despite rising U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions—including an ongoing regional conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel—global trade flows remain resilient, driven largely by investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to World Trade Organization (WTO) figures, trade in AI-related products accounted for 42% of global goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025. This surge is helping to offset headwinds from protectionist policies and supply chain volatility.
The global race to build AI infrastructure—including data centers, chips, and networking equipment—is generating strong momentum for world trade. As John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, stated:
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI — not tariffs. Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment, and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains.” — John Pearson, CEO DHL Express
Logistics providers are adapting rapidly: transshipment hubs absorb redirected cargo, substitute airports take on unexpected connections, and downstream schedules tighten in response to shifting routing decisions. Angela Gadaev, International Logistics Product Portfolio Leader at WiseTech Global, noted that disruption extends well beyond immediate conflict zones, with ripple effects across global freight networks.
Tariff and Geopolitical Impacts Remain Localized
While higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have slowed trade flows overall, their impact has been uneven. According to DHL, trade effects remained concentrated in economies dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. For example, the value of trade fell by 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates during the first five months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025.
U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited for two reasons: first, many importers diversified sourcing and adopted resilience-focused strategies; second, the scale of AI infrastructure investment created countervailing demand for high-value components requiring precision logistics. As a result, globalization remains at a historically high level despite escalating uncertainty about future trade policies.
Source: DC Velocity
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
