According to FreightWaves, Uber Freight’s Q3 Market Update & Outlook Report warns that constrained trucking capacity, volatile diesel prices, and shifting U.S. trade policy could drive a fourth-quarter surge in freight rates.
Truckload rates remain sharply elevated
National average dry van contract linehaul rates reached $2.39 per mile in July — an 18% increase from July 2025. The 13-cent rise from June marked the largest June-to-July gain on record. Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.39 per mile in July, up 47% year over year. Though spot pricing eased to $2.21 per mile during the week of August 26, it remained 35.6% above the same period last year and 23.8% above the nine-year seasonal average.
Tender rejection rates and driver shortages signal persistent strain
Uber Freight’s primary tender acceptance rate improved from 76% in July to 78% in August — still far below the 90% to 94% range observed over the prior three years. As of September 10, the SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index (STRI.USA) stood at 13.45%, significantly higher than in the same period over the previous three years. The report estimates that more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers have exited the industry over the past year, while Class 8 truck production backlogs represent roughly nine months of output.
Mexico-U.S. cross-border constraints intensify
Approximately 20,000 Mexican truck drivers lost U.S. visas between April 2025 and April 2026, and the number of active Mexican-domiciled southern border carriers fell 6.3% between late December and late June. The Laredo dry van load-to-truck ratio stood between 8.0 and 8.5 in mid-August — down from ~10-to-1 in Q2 but still 61.9% higher year over year. Mexico-to-U.S. long-haul spot rates were 8% to 15% above mid-February levels, with corridor-specific increases reaching 30%. Produce exports through Laredo rose 8% year over year during Q2.
Diesel volatility adds cost pressure ahead of bid season
The national average diesel price hit $5.652 per gallon during the week of August 24 — the highest level of 2026 and 52.4% above the same week last year. Diesel had dipped to $4.58 per gallon in early July before rebounding. Uber Freight warned that smaller truckload carriers operating on thin margins may park equipment rather than haul freight at a loss if fuel volatility persists.
“Transportation decisions carry more weight than ever before. Conditions can change quickly, and the cost of reacting too late is often higher than expected.” — Rebecca Tinucci, CEO of Uber Freight
Source: FreightWaves
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
