According to www.aircargonews.net, global air cargo demand rose 7% year on year in June 2026, driven primarily by surging shipments of semiconductor and AI-related hardware.
Air Cargo Defies Expectations Amid AI Surge
Data from Xeneta shows that June’s air cargo performance was unusually strong: demand grew 7% year on year, capacity increased 3%, and the cargo load factor improved by three percentage points to 62%. This occurred even as e-commerce — historically the sector’s main growth engine — weakened significantly. Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw described the demand growth as “
remarkable
” and said current volumes are “
defying gravity
”.
AI Hardware Drives Transpacific Corridor Strength
The source states that AI-related air cargo volumes now constitute less than 10% of total air cargo volume — yet their impact is outsized. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year in April 2026, rising 106%, the strongest growth since the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organisation began recordkeeping in 1986. That surge has made the transpacific corridor the strongest air freight lane this year, despite weakening China–US volumes under tariff pressure. Much of the high-value volume originates in Taiwan and South Korea.
Rates Hold Firm Despite Month-on-Month Stability
Average air cargo spot rates in June were flat month on month at $3.40 per kg, but up 38% year on year — down slightly from the 41% year-on-year gain recorded in May. More notably, rates on key Asia–North America corridors surged sharply over a four-month window: from Northeast Asia to the US, rates rose 41% in the final week of June compared with late February; from Southeast Asia to North America, they climbed 42% over the same period. These gains were directly tied to AI-linked shipments.
E-Commerce Exports Decline Amid Regulatory Shifts
While AI volumes rose, e-commerce cargo weakened. According to China Customs data cited by Xeneta, China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year on year in May — the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments to Europe dropped 15%, those to Asia Pacific fell 4%, and while flows to the US rebounded 26%, they remain below pre–de minimis exemption levels. The European Union’s new flat €3 duty per imported item — plus an expected €2 handling fee launching around November — adds further pressure. Van de Wouw stated: “
The days of e-commerce powering airfreight growth are over for now
.”
Short-Term Contracts Dominate Market Uncertainty
Market uncertainty is reflected in contracting behavior. In Q2 2026, the share of newly agreed shipper–forwarder contracts valid for up to three months reached 58%, doubling from 22% in Q2 2025. Meanwhile, the share of chargeable weight moving on the spot market hit 49% in Q2 2026 — up from 34% before the pandemic. Van de Wouw called this “
the clearest indication that nobody really knows where the market is heading, and no one is willing to commit longer-term
.”
Source: Air Cargo News
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
