Freight Rates Deviate Sharply from Seasonal Norms
According to Sea-Intelligence, the Hormuz crisis has disrupted traditional container freight rate seasonality, with spot rates on major east-west trade routes rebounding instead of declining after the Chinese New Year (CNY). Historically, rates on the Shanghai-Los Angeles route peaked three weeks before CNY due to pre-holiday shipping surges, followed by a sustained seasonal slump. However, in 2026, this pattern was broken, with a deeper-than-usual decline before the peak and another steep drop after CNY, followed by a sharp recovery tied to the Hormuz crisis.
Quantifying the Hormuz Premium
Sea-Intelligence analyzed data from the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) spanning 2013 to 2025, defining “week 0” as the period immediately preceding CNY and examining rate movements across 30 weeks (15 before and 15 after). The consultancy adjusted 2026 data by shifting it three weeks to align with historical patterns. This adjustment revealed a significant deviation: current spot rates on the Shanghai-Los Angeles route are $735 per 40ft higher than expected seasonally. On the Shanghai-New York route, the Hormuz premium was calculated at $864 per 40ft after the same three-week adjustment.
Divergent Impacts Across Trade Lanes
The Europe trade corridors showed mixed results. On the Asia-North Europe route, the deviation from normal seasonality began two weeks earlier than on transpacific routes, with post-CNY declines less severe. The Hormuz premium on this route initially surged to around $600 per 40ft, disappeared completely, and recently re-emerged at $245 per 40ft. The Mediterranean trade displayed even greater volatility: the early premium peaked at $844 per 40ft, dropped to zero, and has now rebounded to $811 per 40ft.
Linking Crisis to Market Shifts
While Sea-Intelligence cautions that other factors—such as localized supply or demand shifts—could influence the data, it notes that the break from historical seasonality closely coincides with the outbreak of the Hormuz crisis. The consultancy states:
“The break from seasonality does appear to coincide with the outbreak of the Hormuz crisis, and it can therefore be justified, for now, to call it a Hormuz premium.”
The consultancy acknowledges that the premium’s volatility, especially in North Europe and the Mediterranean, suggests ongoing market uncertainty, likely driven by geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
