According to FreightWaves, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) finalized its ‘Freedom Means Affordable Cars’ rule on September 28, resetting Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards — lowering the fleet-wide target to 34.5 mpg by 2031, down from the prior goal of 50.4 mpg.
What changes under the new CAFE standards
The December 2025 proposal adjusts standards for model years 2022–2031, with annual increases of roughly 0.25%–0.7%. The rule eliminates assumptions about electric vehicle production or credit trading, following USDOT’s June 2025 interpretive rule. Automakers now gain flexibility to prioritize trucks, SUVs, and internal-combustion or hybrid vehicles without needing EVs to offset compliance.
Under the revised framework, automakers face no civil penalties — a provision set to $0 in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. USDOT estimates the rule will cut the average new-vehicle price by $1,300 and save U.S. consumers $138 billion over five years.
The policy shift does not alter key cost drivers: import tariffs on vehicles and parts, elevated borrowing costs, or record diesel prices remain dominant. Vehicle program cycles — typically 2–4 years long — mean any volume or mix adjustments will surface mostly in model years 2027–2029, not immediately.
Why vehicles keep getting bigger
Two longstanding regulatory mechanisms — footprint-based CAFE targets and the 25% ‘Chicken Tax’ on imported light trucks — jointly incentivize larger vehicles. Since model year 2011, footprint rules have assigned lower fuel economy targets to larger vehicles, expanding size by 2%–32% across 20 of 21 modeled scenarios, according to a University of Michigan study.
Light-duty CAFE applies to vehicles up to 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight rating, covering pickups, SUVs, and vans but excluding tractor-trailers. In model year 2024, trucks (including SUVs and pickups) represented 66% of new vehicle sales, while cars made up just 34%. SUVs alone accounted for 50% of sales.
Average new-vehicle weight hit a record 4,371 pounds in model year 2023, with the average new pickup weighing 1,535 pounds more than the average sedan. Ford paid $365 million in March 2024 to settle a Justice Department claim related to circumventing the 25% Chicken Tax — versus the 2.5% tariff on passenger cars.
Why it matters for freight
Heavier vehicles translate directly into heavier freight loads. Car haulers operate under the federal 80,000-pound weight limit, and industry groups have petitioned for an increase to 88,000 pounds — citing heavier electric vehicles and increasingly massive conventional trucks. In model year 2024, the full-size pickup averaged more than $66,000, serving as the core profit engine for U.S. automakers.
Sonar data indicates that 2026 truckload tightness remains driven by capacity exits, not rising auto-related freight demand. Litigation is expected from states and environmental groups; Congressional Democrats have already challenged the rollback, noting automakers achieved 35.4 mpg in model year 2024 — exceeding the new 34.5 mpg 2031 target.
Source: FreightWaves
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
