According to The Loadstar, dedicated freighter capacity from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 18% in the week of 17–23 August compared with the final full week before the EU’s new low-value import rules took effect on 1 July — the period of 22–28 June.
Capacity expansion defies falling e-commerce demand
The growth contrasts sharply with a steep decline in Chinese e-commerce traffic into Europe. WorldACD data show Hong Kong–Europe tonnage was 33% below last year’s level in the week ending 23 August, while mainland China–Europe traffic fell 8%. However, combined mainland China and Hong Kong–Europe tonnage edged up 1% week on week — its first increase since early June.
WorldACD said the uptick “
could signal a bottoming-out of that downward trend and a potential stabilisation of volumes at a new lower level, supported by rebounding post-summer demand
”.
This modest recovery did not prompt carriers to withdraw freighters from the corridor. Instead, they reshaped capacity geographically — adding volume on some routes while cutting others significantly.
Major route-level shifts
Among the largest increases recorded by Rotate were Hong Kong–Budapest, which gained around 1,100 tonnes of weekly freighter capacity between late June and late August — an increase of 321%; Amsterdam–Shanghai, up 837 tonnes (59%); and Shanghai–Amsterdam, up 660 tonnes (44%).
Conversely, Hong Kong–Frankfurt lost around 503 tonnes of weekly capacity — disappearing entirely from the comparison — while Luxembourg–Hong Kong capacity declined by 505 tonnes (36%).
IATA’s July figures confirm broader market divergence: global dedicated freighter traffic rose 13.9% year-on-year — its strongest increase in over five years — while bellyhold traffic fell 7%. Yet on the Europe–Asia corridor, dedicated freighter traffic contracted 1.3% YoY, even as bellyhold traffic rose 9%.
Rates stabilize as regional demand diverges
Spot rates on the China–Europe lane fell for six consecutive weeks — from $5.43 per kg in Week 25 to $3.79 in Week 31 — a 30% decline. Since then, they rose for three straight weeks, reaching $4.14 in Week 34 — 13% higher than a year earlier. Hong Kong–Europe rates stood at $4.91 per kg in Week 34, just 5% above last year.
Meanwhile, average Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates were 15% higher year-on-year, driven by strong gains elsewhere: South Korea and Taiwan both up 25%, Thailand +32%, and Malaysia +42%.
The capacity reshuffle occurs against tight long-term fleet growth: Trade & Transport Group estimates the global large-widebody freighter fleet will grow only around 2% annually through 2030, rising from about 717 aircraft at the end of 2025 to just under 800.
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
