Trans-Pacific Container Rates Keep Falling in 2026: Overcapacity Meets Geopolitical Uncertainty

Trans-Pacific Freight Rates Break Key Psychological Levels

By mid-February 2026, the trans-Pacific container shipping market witnessed another significant downturn. According to the latest report from Xeneta, a globally recognized maritime data analytics firm, the average spot rate from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast dropped to $1,889 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the week ending February 19, down approximately 8% from the previous week’s $2,052. Simultaneously, rates from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast declined from $2,882 to $2,688 per FEU, marking a similarly notable decrease.

This downward trend is not an isolated phenomenon. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, noted in his client briefing: “From Far East to U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast, it is a textbook market development with falling spot rates coinciding with a slight uptick in offered capacity.” In other words, the market is experiencing a classic supply-demand imbalance, forcing carriers to compete for limited cargo volumes through price reductions.

For Chinese export enterprises relying on trans-Pacific routes, while lower freight rates reduce logistics costs in the short term, they also signal weakening global trade demand. Throughout 2025, many importers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to tariff policy uncertainties, delaying orders and shipments. This “waiting game” directly resulted in carriers facing the awkward situation of “too many ships, too little cargo.”

Overcapacity Emerges as the Defining Theme of 2026

Xeneta’s data reveals that the four-week rolling average of offered capacity as of February 16 increased by 2.7% week-over-week on Asia-West Coast services and by 2.2% to the East Coast. Behind these figures lies the continued pressure from new vessel deliveries, even as major shipping companies recorded year-over-year profit declines in 2025.

For major publicly listed shipping companies, 2025 was a challenging year, with most enterprises reporting declining profits compared to the previous year. Initially, there were expectations that 2026 annual contract negotiations would drive rate increases to repair balance sheets and restore investor confidence. However, persistently weak market demand may dashed these hopes, especially as tariff-related uncertainties continue to cloud the economic outlook.