Global Air Cargo Volumes Rise 7% in January, But Calendar Effects Mask Deeper Structural Shifts
Global air cargo demand posted a 7% year-over-year increase in January 2026, marking the strongest monthly growth since January 2025, according to the latest market intelligence report from freight analytics platform Xeneta. The surge was primarily driven by an earlier Lunar New Year — with celebrations beginning on February 15 this year compared to January 28 in 2025 — which compressed pre-holiday shipping activity into January and amplified short-term volume spikes. However, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw cautioned against over-interpreting the headline figure, noting that “much of January’s strength in air cargo volumes is likely calendar-related rather than a clear indicator of improvements in underlying demand.”
Beneath the seemingly positive topline numbers, the global air freight market is undergoing a fundamental structural transformation driven by the United States’ elimination of the de minimis tariff exemption for low-value imports. This policy change, which removed the previous $800 threshold below which imported packages were exempt from duties and formal customs processing, has devastated the direct-to-consumer air shipping model that powered the explosive growth of Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms. The result is a market increasingly characterized by regional divergence: while overall volumes appear healthy, the composition and direction of global air cargo flows are being radically redrawn, with far-reaching implications for carriers, forwarders, and shippers alike.
Rate Divergence Deepens: Asia-North America Lanes Under Structural Pressure
The global average air cargo spot rate held relatively steady in January at $2.56 per kilogram, down just 1% year-over-year. But this apparent stability masks stark regional disparities that reveal the true state of the market. Northeast Asia-to-US spot rates fell to $4.28 per kilogram, a modest 3% year-over-year decline but a dramatic 17% drop month-over-month. Southeast Asia-to-North America rates fared even worse, sliding to $4.88 per kilogram — down 12% year-over-year and 16% month-over-month. Both key Asia-Americas trade lanes are experiencing sustained downward pressure that stands in sharp contrast to the global average’s relative equilibrium.
The root cause of this divergence is not cyclical softness but a structural demand deficit on transpacific routes. E-commerce shipments typically account for 20% to 25% of total annual global air cargo volumes, and a disproportionate share of this traffic historically moved on China-to-US lanes. With that demand source effectively severed by policy, airlines have been forced to compete aggressively on price for a shrinking pool of traditional trade cargo. Capacity withdrawals have been severe — peaking at 60% on the Pacific Southwest corridor — yet the global dynamic load factor still only reached 57%, up just one percentage point year-over-year, suggesting that demand contraction is outpacing supply discipline on the most affected routes.
China-US E-Commerce Air Exports Plunge 50%+ for Third Consecutive Month
The most striking data point in Xeneta’s February report is the continued freefall in low-value and e-commerce air exports from China to the United States, which have now declined by more than 50% for three consecutive months. For the full year 2025, China-to-US e-commerce air exports were down 28% compared to the prior year. The acceleration of the decline in recent months suggests that the initial adjustment period — during which some shippers attempted workarounds and routing changes — has given way to a more permanent demand destruction on this corridor.
The de minimis exemption was not merely a trade policy technicality; it was the architectural foundation upon which platforms like SHEIN and Temu built their entire logistics model. By shipping individual low-value packages directly from Chinese factories to American consumers via air freight, these platforms could bypass traditional distribution channels — no warehousing, no bulk ocean shipping, no domestic trucking networks. Each package cleared customs individually under the $800 threshold with minimal paperwork and zero duties. The elimination of this exemption has increased per-package logistics costs by an estimated 30% to 50%, fundamentally undermining the unit economics that made sub-$10 fast fashion and ultra-cheap consumer goods viable for American shoppers. Industry estimates suggest that SHEIN and Temu alone were shipping over one million packages per day to the US via air before the policy change, representing a staggering volume of dedicated air freight capacity.
European Pivot: Chinese Platforms Race to Rebuild Logistics Networks Across the Atlantic
With the US market increasingly hostile to their air-freight-dependent business model, Chinese cross-border e-commerce giants are accelerating their pivot toward Europe. Xeneta’s data confirms that Chinese e-commerce activity in European markets has been growing to offset the higher cost of importing goods into the United States. The strategic logic is straightforward: the European Union currently maintains a de minimis threshold of €150 (though this too faces political pressure for reduction), and the bloc’s 450 million consumers represent a massive addressable market. SHEIN has already established local warehousing and fulfillment centers in Poland, Italy, and other European markets, while Temu has been partnering with local European logistics providers to reduce delivery times.
However, the transition from a US-centric to a Europe-centric logistics architecture presents formidable challenges that go far beyond simply redirecting air cargo. The EU’s regulatory environment for imported consumer goods is significantly more complex than the US system, encompassing CE marking requirements, REACH chemical safety regulations, WEEE electronic waste directives, and the forthcoming ESPR Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation taking effect in July 2026, which will ban the destruction of unsold clothing and footwear. Last-mile delivery infrastructure varies enormously across Europe — highly digitized in the Nordics, considerably less developed in Southern and Eastern Europe. Return logistics, a critical component of the e-commerce experience, must be rebuilt from scratch for each national market. This transformation from an “asset-light direct air shipping” model to an “asset-heavy localized operations” approach will fundamentally alter the cost structure and competitive dynamics of Chinese cross-border e-commerce.
Red Sea Reopening Adds Modal Shift Risk for Air Cargo in Q2 2026
Compounding the structural challenges from the de minimis policy shift, the gradual reopening of Red Sea shipping lanes threatens to create additional headwinds for air cargo demand in the second quarter of 2026. In January, Maersk completed its first structural return to the Red Sea with the MECL service connecting the Middle East and India to the US East Coast. Subsequently, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that their Gemini Cooperation’s IMX service would resume Red Sea transits from mid-February. However, CMA CGM reversed its own tentative return, rerouting vessels back around the Cape of Good Hope — highlighting the divergence in risk assessments among major carriers.
During the peak of the Red Sea crisis (early 2024 through mid-2025), significant cargo volumes were forced from ocean to air as the Cape of Good Hope detour added 10 to 14 days to transit times on key Europe-Asia and Mediterranean routes. As ocean carriers gradually restore Suez Canal service, this “forced air freight” volume will naturally migrate back to ocean shipping, creating a potential demand vacuum on affected air cargo corridors. Xeneta’s analysis offers some reassurance for the near term, stating that “even if the Red Sea were to improve further, a rapid modal shift from air back to ocean still looks unlikely in Q1 2026.” The rationale is that carrier security assessments, network adjustments, and customer communications all require time, making any full-scale return to pre-crisis routing a gradual process extending well into the second half of the year.
Strategic Imperatives: Diversification, Flexibility, and Digital Agility Define the New Playbook
The converging forces reshaping global air cargo markets in 2026 — de minimis policy impacts, e-commerce logistics network migration, regional rate divergence, and Red Sea reopening dynamics — demand a fundamental reassessment of supply chain strategy for stakeholders across the value chain. For Chinese cross-border e-commerce operators, the most urgent priority is accelerating market diversification beyond both the US and Europe, exploring high-growth opportunities in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Simultaneously, logistics models must evolve from single-mode air freight dependency toward hybrid architectures combining overseas warehousing, ocean shipping for bulk replenishment, and local last-mile delivery — a shift that requires substantial capital investment but delivers greater resilience against policy shocks.
For air cargo carriers and freight forwarders, the collapse of Asia-Americas e-commerce volumes necessitates a strategic pivot in network planning and customer portfolio management. Increasing capacity allocation to high-value cargo segments — semiconductor equipment, pharmaceutical cold chain, aerospace components, and luxury goods — can offset volume losses while improving yield per kilogram. The growth of China-Europe e-commerce traffic also presents a near-term opportunity for carriers willing to rebalance their networks toward Atlantic and intra-European routes. Moreover, the emerging sea-air intermodal landscape created by the Red Sea reopening opens new possibilities for logistics providers capable of offering end-to-end multimodal solutions. In an era of unprecedented market volatility, the winners will be those organizations that combine flexible capacity management, diversified customer portfolios, and digitally-enabled operational agility into a coherent competitive strategy.
Source: Supply Chain Dive
