US Containerized Freight Imports Continue to Grow in September, S&P Global Market Intelligence Reports
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By Jeff Berman
Published Date: October 18, 2024
According to the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, US containerized freight imports experienced another strong growth in September.
The total import volume for September reached 2.88 million TEUs, marking a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, which is the thirteenth consecutive month of growth. This growth rate surpassed August’s 10.9% annual growth but was lower than July’s 14.6% peak since March when it hit 16%. Imports increased by 1.8% from August to September.
As of September, US containerized freight imports for the first nine months of this year reached 24.06 million TEUs, a year-over-year increase of 12.5%.
S&P’s report indicates that total US containerized imports grew by 13.0% in Q3 compared to the same period last year, despite numerous challenges faced by the US supply chain, including adverse weather conditions, port labor disputes, and global port disruptions.
Specific commodity import data for September includes:
* Durable consumer goods up 13.5%, with a quarterly growth of 13.3%;
* Capital goods increased by 3.8% on a monthly basis, and 5.5% quarter-over-quarter. This is the slowest growing sector, reflecting a decline in manufacturing activity and potentially reduced capital expenditures by factory owners;
* Entertainment goods, including toys, grew by 21.4%, benefiting from early shipments to avoid disruptions and support earlier sales seasons;
* Consumer electronics saw a 9.1% increase in September following an 8% growth in August, indicating a gradual recovery of underlying demand with some early shipping.
Chris Rogers, Director of Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated in an interview that he expects 2024 to be stronger than 2023 due to significant inventory destocking last year.
“All it takes is a return to ‘normal’ for 2024 to look stronger. On the surface, this will always be lower compared to peak times but not by much,” he said. “So far, we are at the same point as in 2021 and 2022—around 25 million TEUs, while last year was around 21 million. If you draw a straight line from 2019 to 2024, it forms a reasonable trend. But we’ve had many ups and downs in between.”
Rogers pointed out that the recovery of more typical inventory management suggests that 2024 should perform stronger than 2023. He also noted that weather disruptions played as expected, along with labor issues at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, which have since been resolved.
“Despite numerous disruptions, I believe these were not entirely unexpected, which is why companies took preemptive measures,” he said. “We see this reflected across different sectors of the economy, where some goods are growing faster than others.”
This trend was evident in September’s data, which Rogers described as “divergent.” For consumer goods, it was a strong month with durable consumer goods up 16.5%, including household items up 19% and entertainment goods up 21%. These increases were due to early procurement and lower year-over-year comparisons. However, industrial goods did not fare well, with capital goods only growing by about 4%.
Looking ahead to Q1 of 2024, S&P expects US containerized imports to grow by 4.1%, higher than the 3.8% forecast for Q4. Rogers explained that these projections are based on normal business policies.
“Examining the impact of East Coast and Gulf Coast port shutdowns on quarterly data, it won’t be reflected in October’s numbers because the downtime was short,” he said. “However, the issue is if a strike occurs in January or early February, it could last longer. Labor issues have been resolved, but automation components are being implemented gradually. This takes time for two reasons: first, it allows support for workers through training to operate machines or finding alternative roles. Second, the US currently does not manufacture these cranes. The argument is that ‘you can automate, but you need American-made cranes.’ This could be a potential solution that satisfies all parties.”
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Source Website: Logistics Management
