According to e.vnexpress.net, Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast has been raised to 2.5%, up from an earlier projection of 2%.
Economic Recovery Driven by AI Investment and Tourism
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) attributes the upward revision to stronger exports and investment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. The forecast assumes continued capital inflows from cloud and data center providers, alongside a rebound in international tourism, with 32.5 million foreign tourist arrivals expected in 2026. The UTCC also conditions its outlook on two geopolitical assumptions: the settlement of Middle East conflicts by October 2025, and the U.S. Section 301 trade probe not reaching a conclusion this year.
K-Shaped Recovery Pattern Emerges
The UTCC anticipates Thailand’s recovery will follow a K-shaped model, where growth is concentrated in high-tech industries and large enterprises. In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises, households, and traditional sectors are expected to continue contracting. This divergence reflects uneven access to digital infrastructure and global market integration. A photograph from June 3, 2025, shows vegetable sellers managing customers at Khlong Toey wet market in Bangkok — illustrating the persistence of informal, low-margin economic activity amid broader technological shifts.
Regional Context and Institutional Authority
In Southeast Asia, Thailand ranked as the region’s 3rd-largest economy by GDP last year, behind Indonesia and Singapore, according to the International Monetary Fund. Thanavath Phonvichai, President of the UTCC, emphasized that the 2.5% GDP growth forecast rests on specific, measurable assumptions—not general optimism. He stated: “The 2.5% GDP growth forecast is based on several assumptions: ongoing investment by cloud and data center providers, 32.5 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2026, the settlement of Middle East conflicts by October this year, and the U.S. Section 301 trade probe not reaching a conclusion this year.”
Source: e.vnexpress.net
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
