According to globalsources.com, battery supply-chain risks are increasingly concentrated not in mineral mining but in refining, processing, validation, and export licensing — with downstream bottlenecks intensifying in 2025 and 2026.
Bottlenecks Move Beyond Mining
The International Energy Agency has pointed out that China still dominates as the key refiner for most energy-transition minerals. That heavy concentration explains why downstream processing remains one of the biggest bottlenecks in the global battery ecosystem. According to estimates from S&P Global, China accounted for around 61 percent of mined rare earth supply in 2024, but it controlled 91 percent of refining and processing capacity for major rare earths. This stark gap means raw material availability does not guarantee usable supply — a mine can produce rare earth ore, but customers require refined, qualified products like separated oxides or magnets meeting technical standards.
Export Controls Tighten in 2025–2026
China’s export control policies have become central to this downstream bottleneck. According to reports from sources like S&P Global and industry trackers, Beijing tightened restrictions around 2025 and 2026 on rare earths, related magnets, and dual-use materials. In June 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed stricter export restrictions on 10 US companies, including MP Materials Corp. and USA Rare Earth Inc., targeting dual-use items such as rare earth elements and related magnets. Though some broader policies were later suspended or delayed, the overall trend has made export compliance a bigger part of sourcing strategies.
Lithium, Graphite, Nickel, and Cobalt Face Parallel Pressures
A similar picture emerges with lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt. The US Geological Survey’s 2026 mineral summaries show that while mine production is spread across many countries, bottlenecks are often found in chemical processing, purification, and meeting customer standards. In 2025, the US was completely reliant on imports for natural graphite, while China dominated worldwide output and the key processing steps needed to turn raw graphite into battery-ready anode material. Battery manufacturers need anode-grade graphite — not just raw ore — and that qualification depends entirely on downstream processing capability.
Producer-Country Policies Reshape Tradable Supply
Indonesia continues to use ore export bans and production permits to push more nickel processing inside the country, while the Democratic Republic of Congo has combined cobalt export rules and quotas with controls affecting cobalt shipments. Even when mines are operational, local regulations may restrict exports, require domestic processing, or limit how much can leave the country — meaning supply can be heavily affected by political decisions. There might be plenty of materials in the ground, but logistics, licensing, and processing limits often set the real pace of availability. This disconnect can lead to shortages of usable material, even when mines are producing plenty of raw ore.
Source: globalsources.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
