According to The Loadstar, global ecommerce air cargo growth has flattened to 0% year-over-year in 2024, following a surge that saw 41% growth two years prior and 23% absolute growth since 2024.
Regulatory Impact and Capacity Collapse
Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of Rotate, told delegates at the EU CBEC ecommerce forum in Liège that politically driven policy interventions — notably the EU’s and US’s recent de minimis regulatory changes — have become the industry’s top risk. The EU’s new rules, implemented in July, triggered an immediate 24% decline in ecommerce volumes and a 28% reduction in freighter capacity to Europe that same month.
The capacity contraction equated to roughly 5,000 freighter flights disappearing annually from the market. Keyrouse emphasized that the pullback was not offset by redistribution: “We didn’t really see that capacity out of China redistributed elsewhere.” Instead, older, less fuel-efficient converted freighters were parked, and utilisation rates dropped across the board.
Uneven Gateway Impacts and Regional Shifts
The capacity retreat hit EU ecommerce gateways disproportionately. Between June and August, Budapest’s air cargo capacity fell by nearly 60%, while Liège and Amsterdam also registered significant declines. These losses were not absorbed by alternative hubs — a pattern underscoring structural disruption rather than temporary re-routing.
Rotate’s latest sentiment survey, drawing on more than 100 industry responses, found that most respondents do not expect European ecommerce volumes to rebound before early 2025 — “not for another six months,” Keyrouse stated. A minority anticipate swift recovery, while others foresee a permanent but stable downward adjustment.
Emerging Demand Drivers and Outlook
While ecommerce air cargo stagnates, technology hardware is accelerating demand. Outside China, tech-related goods — including cloud computing infrastructure, computers, and semiconductors — now represent 68% of Asia-Pacific exports, reflecting the rapid advance of the “China plus one” manufacturing strategy.
Rotate forecasts total air cargo demand will grow 3% over the next 12 months, closely matching projected capacity growth of 3.3%. Displaced ecommerce demand is expected to migrate toward Latin America and the Middle East and Africa, with Southeast Asia and non-EU European markets also identified as secondary growth corridors.
“When we were here two years ago, ecommerce was showing a 41% growth year over year; if you fast-forward, we have 23% absolute growth, but we are at 0% year-over-year growth. Ecommerce growth has indeed flattened in this year, but we’re still higher.” — Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of Rotate
Source: The Loadstar
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
