If FedEx is about to withdraw from the NASCAR Cup Series, could this lead to Denny Hamlin also leaving Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR)?
On September 24, Sports Business Journal reported that the long-term sponsor of JGR’s No. 11 car might further reduce its sponsorship or completely exit NASCAR after the 2024 season.
There is no doubt that FedEx has significantly reduced its presence as Hamlin’s sponsor. From a full-season sponsorship to only sponsoring 12 races last year.
In this year’s 36 Cup Series points races, FedEx was the primary sponsor for just nine out of 29 races held so far. However, FedEx will make an appearance at the upcoming Kansas Speedway race and may sponsor a few more races before the season ends.
@FedEx is expected to further reduce its sponsorship presence with @JoeGibbsRacing after this season, potentially ending one of NASCAR’s most successful driver-sponsor partnerships. — Adam Stern @A_S12 September 25, 2024
Despite this, the logistics company seems poised to exit. FedEx has outlasted its competitor UPS by a decade, which is commendable.
If 2024 indeed marks FedEx’s last stand, it could mean that Hamlin’s days with JGR’s No. 11 car are numbered.
Before speculation begins, I want to clarify: Hamlin will continue with Gibbs in 2025. He has a contract with the team, and it is now too late for them to change drivers and start anew next year.
NASCAR contracts can be quite vague, but Hamlin signed an extension of his multi-year contract in September 2023. This means that 2024 was the first year of this agreement, with 2025 being the second year, fitting the definition of a multi-year deal. Whether he is locked into 2026 remains unclear, but given Hamlin’s good relationship with Joe Gibbs and his loyalty to long-term owners, I believe he would never breach contract.
Of course, Hamlin might retire after the 2025 or 2026 season. After all, he will be 46 years old post-2026.
If this future NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee wishes to continue racing beyond his contract expiration, it is likely that he would drive a different car for the first time in his career rather than JGR’s No. 11.
So how does FedEx’s potential departure affect all of this? Firstly, Hamlin has repeatedly stated that he hopes to use one number, one sponsor, and one team throughout his entire career. The departure of FedEx would destroy one of these variables.
More importantly, few expected Kyle Busch to leave JGR, but the successful pairing ended after long-term sponsor M&Ms departed. Like with Busch and Matt Kenseth, retaining Hamlin will cost JGR more than signing rookies or lesser-known drivers. Both Busch and Kenseth were unwilling to take a pay cut to stay with Gibbs. If Hamlin faces similar circumstances, would he accept a pay cut?
If Hamlin leaves JGR, where would he go? This is the easiest question to answer in this scenario: his own team, 23XI Racing.
Hamlin has a dichotomy of expectations for how he wants to end his career, as stated on Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour podcast.
“I have some concerns,” Hamlin said. “One is that I want to finish my career with Joe Gibbs Racing because I need to be loyal to the people who gave me a shot.”
“But yes, there’s definitely a part of me that wants to race for 23XI, absolutely. Without question, I will say that at some point in my career, I will participate in at least one race with 23XI.”
Essentially, if everything goes as Hamlin wishes, he would continue racing with JGR until retiring from full-time competition and then compete for 23XI a couple of times like Martin Truex Jr.
The issue is that things rarely end according to an athlete’s wishes, no matter how talented they are. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Derek Jeter were exceptions in recent years. More often than not, great athletes who wish to conclude their careers with the same team have to retire early or eventually move on to other teams (like Rusty Wallace, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle) or spend most of their successful period with different teams (such as Kenseth, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Mark Martin).
No driver in JGR’s history has spent his entire career there. The three drivers who won championships for the organization—Busch, Tony Stewart, and Bobby Labonte—all eventually left. It is true that Hamlin appears to have a closer relationship with Gibbs than these three.
My prediction for the future: When Hamlin’s current contract expires, he will be asked to take a pay cut (unless JGR can find enough sponsors to replace FedEx’s funding) or advised to retire. At this point, there are three possible outcomes:
- Hamlin accepts the pay cut and remains loyal to Gibbs.
- Hamlin retires from full-time competition and begins part-time racing with 23XI.
- Believing he can still compete, Hamlin transitions to full-time racing with 23XI.
Hamlin’s decision will largely depend on the exact terms offered by JGR and his competitive form. If Hamlin fails to win races and misses the playoffs, he might retire from full-time competition.
If he continues winning races and competing for championships, he may want to prove that he still has what it takes. The third scenario would only occur if JGR believes he cannot perform while he thinks otherwise. Most often, when a star athlete ends their career with another team, it is because the original team believed they were past their prime but the athletes felt differently.
Just last year, moving from JGR to 23XI was considered a step down. Now, it’s a very level transition. After all, Tyler Reddick just won the regular-season championship and has more victories in the past two years than both of JGR’s entries combined.
No one knows exactly what will happen when Hamlin’s current contract expires, but I can assure you that it will be one of the main topics during the upcoming Silly Season.
For now, just enjoy the last few instances of seeing Hamlin in FedEx colors. Once this partnership ends, it truly marks the end of an era for NASCAR.
About the Author
Michael Massie
Content Director
Michael Massie joined Frontstretch in 2017 and has served as Content Director since 2020. A native of Richmond, Virginia, Massie covers NASCAR, IndyCar, SRX, and CARS Tour. Besides motorsports, as a graduate of Virginia Tech and a minority shareholder of the Green Bay Packers, he supports his beloved Hokies and Packers.
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