According to istoedinheiro.com.br, Brazilian grain exports to China fell 7.6% in September 2026 year-on-year, totaling US$ 7.89 billion.
Bilateral Trade Imbalance Narrows
While exports to China declined, Brazilian imports from China rose 12.6% in the same month to US$ 7.06 billion. This resulted in a bilateral trade surplus of US$ 830 million for September — the narrowest monthly surplus since early 2026. The data were released on Tuesday, 6 October by the Secretaria de Comércio Exterior of Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Secex/MDIC).
Beef Export Collapse Drives Decline
The steepest drop occurred in beef shipments, which plunged 93.5% in September. Herlon Brandão, Director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies at Secex, attributed the collapse to China’s tariff quota ceiling on Brazilian beef, triggering punitive duties that discouraged near-term shipments. China accounted for 53% of all Brazilian beef purchases in 2025, making the shortfall especially consequential.
“This volume [exported] for the United States helps mitigate the decline, but the size of the market is not sufficient to absorb all the volume that fell more than 90% for China.” — Herlon Brandão, Director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies, Secex
Commodity-Specific Drivers
Corn exports weakened due to surging domestic demand, while soybean shipments remained globally competitive; authorities confirmed Brazil’s ability to redirect volumes elsewhere without major losses. Iron ore exports also contributed to the overall dip, though the report did not quantify their individual decline. Still, the government noted that U.S. markets absorbed part of the displaced protein output — insufficient, however, to offset the >90% contraction in Chinese demand.
Year-to-Date Surplus Remains Robust
Despite the September slowdown, Brazil’s total exports to China for January–September 2026 reached US$ 84.64 billion, up 12% versus the same period in 2025. Chinese imports into Brazil totaled US$ 58.62 billion over those nine months — an increase of 9.9% — yielding a cumulative trade surplus of US$ 26.05 billion with China for the year so far.
Source: istoedinheiro.com.br
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
