According to valor.globo.com, Brazil’s total diesel imports fell 26.7% in September 2026 compared with September 2025, per data from the Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex) released on Tuesday, October 6.
Demand Coverage and Domestic Production
The volume of imported diesel dropped from 1.77 million cubic meters in September 2025 to 1.29 million cubic meters in September 2026. The Brazilian market relies on imports for approximately 30% of its diesel demand, with the remainder supplied primarily by Petrobras and private refineries.
The shift reflects both reduced availability and changing supplier dynamics: Russia — previously the top diesel supplier due to lower prices — cut exports to prioritize its domestic market. In September 2026, Brazil imported just 75,200 cubic meters of Russian diesel, a year-on-year decline of 84.3%.
In contrast, U.S. diesel imports surged to 957,300 cubic meters in September 2026, up 18.12% from the same month in 2025. Measured in barrels, total diesel imports stood at 8.17 million barrels, down 26.5% year-on-year.
Shifting Supplier Shares and Market Tightness
The United States’ share of Brazil’s total diesel imports jumped from 45.78% in September 2025 to 73.56% in September 2026. Bruno Cordeiro, analyst at StoneX, noted that the import profile resembles August’s but with a steeper annual decline driven by constrained supply:
“The market of diesel is more tightened by the restrictions from Russia.” — Bruno Cordeiro, analyst at StoneX
Cordeiro added that scheduled maintenance at key Petrobras refineries — combined with globally fragile import conditions — is pushing the market toward greater reliance on inventories:
“Under the context of weakened global imports and refineries undergoing maintenance, the trend is for the market to draw more heavily on stocks in the coming months.” — Bruno Cordeiro, analyst at StoneX
Seasonal factors also loom: October typically sees higher diesel consumption due to the agricultural cycle. Meanwhile, northern-hemisphere winter demand is rising, and U.S. President Donald Trump has floated potential restrictions on diesel exports to curb domestic fuel prices — though the White House later dismissed such a move.
Outlook and Strategic Vulnerability
Cordeiro warned that continued Russian export constraints through year-end could heighten vulnerability, especially as U.S. domestic diesel demand peaks during winter:
“Brazil depends on American diesel, just like countries in Europe and Asia. If Russian restrictions persist into year-end while U.S. consumption rises, there could be measures to prioritize the domestic market.” — Bruno Cordeiro, analyst at StoneX
This dynamic underscores a structural dependency: with 73.56% of imported diesel now coming from the U.S., any policy shift or supply shock there would directly impact Brazil’s energy security and logistics operations.
Source: valor.globo.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
