According to Seatrade Maritime, dry bulk shipping owners are confronting intensifying operational and financial pressures as grain cargo availability plummets due to escalating conflict in the Black Sea region.
UN Warns Against Weaponizing Maritime Chokepoints
Speaking to reporters in New York on Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that “maritime chokepoints must never become instruments of coercion”. He emphasized that the delivery of food, energy, and essential goods should never be impeded — a principle already violated in multiple regions, including the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea ports.
The disruption is asymmetric across sectors: while VLCC day rates have surged to $800,000 per day on Gulf fixtures according to Clarksons, the tanker market retains cargo demand but faces acute safety challenges. In contrast, the dry bulk grain trade suffers from cargo scarcity despite ample vessel availability.
A third of global wheat exports originate from Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports in Ukraine and Russia. Russia and Ukraine exported 6.3 million tonnes of wheat in August 2025 — but this month’s exports are projected to fall to no more than 2.5 million tonnes, with further declines anticipated in the months ahead.
Fertiliser Halt Threatens African Harvests
Fertiliser shipments from the Arabian Gulf have virtually ceased since the US/Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal conditions, about 25% of the world’s fertiliser and approximately 40% of global urea trade pass through this waterway — much of it destined for Africa.
Without timely fertiliser deliveries, African grain harvests are at severe risk. Famine is already present in many African countries, primarily driven by regional conflicts. In Europe, however, food inflation remains elevated while the full impact of grain shortages has yet to materialize.
The number of bulk carriers still trapped in the Gulf is estimated at between 120 and 150 vessels. With no resolution in sight for the Strait of Hormuz stalemate, these ships are unlikely to rejoin the active trading fleet anytime soon.
Market Reallocation May Drive Global Food Price Spikes
When the detained vessels eventually return to service, the persistent shortage of grain cargoes may compel owners to shift tonnage away from the traditionally high-yield grain trades into other major or minor bulk commodities — a structural reallocation with serious implications for global food affordability.
This trend could accelerate price volatility, especially as analysts describe the agricultural export disruption from the Black Sea as unprecedented. The report notes that grain ranks as the world’s third-largest major bulk commodity after iron ore and coal — underscoring the scale of the logistical shock.
Source: Seatrade Maritime
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
