According to thehindubusinessline.com, India’s 2026/27 cotton production is forecast at 24.5 million 480-lb bales, down 2% in yield due to below-normal rainfall — with planting still 2% behind last year as of August 12, 2026.
Crop Outlook and Weather Constraints
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in New Delhi projects cotton output from 11.5 million hectares, with yields forecast at 464 kg per hectare. This represents a 2% decline from prior forecasts, driven by persistent dry conditions in western and central India. Although the cumulative monsoon deficit narrowed to 12% below normal by August 12, reservoir storage remains at only 60% of capacity — constraining irrigation support for late-planted areas.
Domestic Demand and Trade Implications
Domestic mill use is raised to 26.2 million 480-lb bales, reflecting strong textile and apparel export orders. With higher minimum support prices and tighter crop prospects, lint prices are expected to remain firm. Mills may increase raw cotton imports via duty-free export mechanisms if the general tariff exemption expires after October 31, shifting available fiber toward downstream manufacturing instead of exports.
“India’s 2026/27 (Oct–Sept) cotton production is forecast at 24.5 million 480-lb bales from 11.5 million hectares. Yields are forecast 2% lower at 464 kg per hectare due to forecasts for below-normal rainfall through August–September, with western and central India at greatest risk of extended dry spells.” — U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, New Delhi post
The report was published on August 28, 2026. As a result, the raw cotton exportable surplus will remain constrained, with fiber prioritized for value-added domestic processing over international sale.
Source: thehindubusinessline.com
Compiled from international media by the SCI.AI editorial team.
